Taliban chief's capture seen as start, more needed

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The capture of the Taliban's top military commander in Pakistan followed months of behind-the-scenes prodding by U.S. officials who saw inaction by Islamabad as a major threat to their Afghan war strategy.

But officials and analysts said it was too soon to tell whether Pakistan's cooperation against Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar -- captured earlier this month in a joint raid in Karachi by Pakistani and U.S. intelligence agencies -- would be extended to other top militants on the U.S. hit list.

"This is a game of inches. It is highly unlikely the Pakistanis would turn 100 percent overnight," said former CIA analyst Bruce Riedel, now with the Brookings Institution, a Washington-based think tank.

Mullah Baradar has been described as one of the Afghan Taliban's top strategic leaders, and U.S. officials said interrogations now under way could produce significant intelligence about the group's leadership, capabilities and military operations at a critical time of stepped-up U.S. operations in neighboring Afghanistan.

"This is a major player in the Afghan Taliban. If he's off the streets, it would be a serious setback for the Taliban in the near term and deal a severe personal blow to (Taliban chief) Mullah Omar, who has relied on him for years as a trusted associate," a U.S. national security official said.

Other U.S. officials were more cautious, citing the Taliban's resilience as an organization and ability to fill the void for leaders soon after they are captured or killed.

"How long it takes them to ... reconstitute depends on the situation," Colonel David Lapan, a Pentagon spokesman, said.

CIA INVOLVEMENT IN RAID

The raid that caught Mullah Baradar was carried out by Pakistan's spy agency, the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI, and involved CIA operatives, according to U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.

It followed a year-long push led by U.S. National Security Adviser Jim Jones, Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to get Islamabad "off the fence" when it comes to reining in Afghan Taliban leaders who lead the insurgency from Pakistan, one official said.

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs pointed to increased cooperation and better intelligence sharing in recent months but declined to comment further, saying "this involves very sensitive intelligence matters."

"It's promising," another U.S. official said of the ISI's decision to mount the operation jointly with the CIA against Mullah Baradar. Asked where that cooperation would lead next, the official added: "We'll see."

Riedel, who led the Obama administration's first review a year ago of Afghanistan and Pakistan strategy, largely attributed the shift to Islamabad coming around to the U.S. view that there are strong links between the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban.

"I heard from one Pakistani that the only good Taliban was a dead Taliban ... but will this lead to cooperation on all sides? -- I would not go that far," said Riedel.

The CIA has stepped up unmanned aerial drone attacks and intelligence-gathering operations in Pakistan, particularly since a December 30 suicide bombing killed seven of the agency's employees at a U.S. base in eastern Afghanistan.

The successful joint raid targeting Mullah Baradar followed a drone strike in January that Pakistani and U.S. officials suspect killed Pakistani Taliban chief Hakimullah Mehsud.

Lapan said General Stanley McChrystal, the commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, has made clear he "considers the entire area, not just Afghanistan, as being part of the fight," underscoring Washington's call for Pakistan to help rein in the Taliban on both sides of the border.

In a visit to Pakistan last month, Gates warned of growing links between al Qaeda, the Taliban and Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, the group accused of plotting the November 2008 attack in Mumbai.

But U.S. officials held out little hope of a broader crack down by Pakistan on the Taliban leadership council, which is said to be based in Quetta, on the heels of Mullah Baradar's capture, suggesting future raids would only come gradually as opportunities arise.

ISI cooperation with the CIA is a highly sensitive issue in Pakistan, where anti-American sentiment is high and conspiracy theories abound over what American spies and Special Operations forces are doing there and whether it infringes on the country's sovereignty.

Pakistan, for its part, has said it wants to play a bigger role in reconciliation efforts in Afghanistan and has told the United States this in recent months.

How Mullah Baradar's capture might fit into these talks is still unclear but U.S. military and political leaders have said repeatedly that the battle in Afghanistan will be won not only on the battlefield but in reconciling warring factions.

(Editing by Cynthia Osterman)