Coup may usher in a democratic future for Niger

DAKAR (Reuters) - The overthrow of Niger's pariah leader Mamadou Tandja has been condemned internationally as undemocratic, but it could provide the west African country with its best chance for elections.

Tandja was removed on Thursday in response tension caused by changes he made to the uranium-producing country's constitution in 2009 to extend his rule, effectively delaying elections due this year by at least three years.

"This is one of those cases where you ask yourself if there's such a thing as a good coup," said a regional analyst who asked not to be identified. "Though it really depends on the junta's intentions."

The crisis in Niger, whose oil and mineral wealth has attracted billions of dollars in foreign investment, is one of many in a region plagued by coups and delayed elections which have proved obstacles to democratic civilian rule.

Fighters from the junta, which calls itself the Supreme Council for the Restoration of Democracy (CSRD), stormed the presidential palace on Thursday in a hail of gunfire before detaining Tandja and suspending the constitution.

Two regional bodies, the African Union and ECOWAS, and Niger's former colonial ruler France, quickly condemned the coup while the United States said it could not defend Tandja's violent overthrow.

"Clearly, we do not in any way, shape or form, you know, defend violence of this nature, but clearly we think this underscores that Niger needs to move ahead with the elections and the formation of a new government," U.S. State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said on Thursday.

The junta's next move will be important. It has given no sign whether it will win foreign backing with a swift restoration of democracy or entrench itself in power with the prospect of an increase in revenues from resources in the near future.

HUGE INVESTMENTS

Niger has attracted huge investments in recent years, including a $1.2 billion uranium mining project by France's Areva and a $5 billion oil project by China's China National Petroleum Corp.

"The international community, accounting for around 10 percent of government revenue, must wait to know the character of Niger's new rulers before deciding on its next course of action, but they will demand a program for the return of constitutionalism and democracy," IHS Global Insight said in a research note Friday.

Raising hopes of a transition to civilian rule, military sources have said two of the junta's members played a role in a 1999 coup that paved the way for the elections that brought Tandja to power, described by observers as free and fair.

"The CSRD pedigree could mean a return to constitutionalism within the short to medium term," IHS said.

The Niger military is widely regarded as well-disciplined and more likely to uphold the constitutional order than those of other west African countries such as Guinea, where a junta seized power more than a year ago.

"This is not Dadis Camara. They are more professional," said Alex Vines, head of the Africa program at the London think tank Chatham House, referring to Guinea's military chief.

"It is a bittersweet thing. It is uncomfortable to have a coup but if it is a short-term platform for elections, that could be OK," he added.

Even if the junta calls elections, however, analysts say the coup sets a bad precedent.

"There was a coup in Mauritania in 2005 that was widely seen as a good coup and was followed by elections. But there was another coup three years later," said Jennifer Cooke, Africa analyst at Washington's Center for Strategic International Studies.

"While a coup like this solves the immediate problem, it also sets a precedent for future shortcuts around the constitution," she said.

(Additional reporting and editing by David Lewis))