SCENARIOS-Canada likely to avoid election over budget

OTTAWA Feb 25 (Reuters) - Canada's minority Conservative government faces a series of confidence votes in March over its budget and a major speech unveiling its policy agenda, but it is very unlikely to be forced into an early election.

On March 3, the government will launch a new parliamentary session with the Speech from the Throne, setting out its priorities and goals for the new session.

The budget on March 4 will contain no new measures, the government has said, but will stay the course on stimulus spending and map a way out of the record-large deficit once the economy has fully recovered.

The budget and the Speech from the Throne are both considered matters of confidence, so the votes on them provide an opportunity for the three opposition parties to bring down the government and trigger an election.

The Conservative government under Prime Minster Stephen Harper holds a minority of the 308 seats in the House of Commons and needs the support of at least one opposition party in order to survive. Most pundits expect it to win the needed support.

DECISION DATES

Parliamentary rules dictate there must be four days of debate on the budget, though they are not necessarily consecutive, and up to six days of debate on the Speech from the Throne, at the government's discretion.

Each requires a final vote after the debates end, which is always a matter of confidence. Prior to that final vote there will also be votes on an amendment from the Liberals and a sub-amendment from the Bloc Quebecois, the second-largest opposition party. The government decides whether these are confidence matters and often they are.

The exact dates of the votes are uncertain because procedural rules leave plenty of leeway for politicians to tinker with the voting agenda. Technically, the earliest possible date the government could be brought down in a confidence vote would likely be March 8, although the series of votes could stretch out into later in the month.

LIBERALS SUPPORT, THERE IS NO ELECTION

The most likely scenario is that the main opposition Liberals vote in favor of the budget, while the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Bloc Quebecois vote against it.

Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff, who wants more job-creation measures from Ottawa, may find enough nuggets in the budget or speech to support the government without appearing to give in too easily.

He could also provide tacit support for the government by opposing the budget but ordering his members of Parliament to be absent during the crucial vote so the Conservatives have enough votes to survive.

This would be a role reversal from last October when the Liberals tried to pull the plug on the Conservatives over their handling of the economic crisis, but the other two parties stepped in to prop up the government.

The chances of the NDP or Bloc Quebecois supporting the government are slim, although neither has been pushing for an election and may feel compelled to soften their stand if it becomes clear the Liberals are taking a hard-line stance.

However, both Harper and Ignatieff have made it clear they have no appetite for an election now.

OPPOSITION GANGS UP, ELECTIONS TRIGGERED

If all three parties vote against the budget and the government is defeated, Harper must consult with Governor General Michaelle Jean, the representative of Queen Elizabeth, Canada's head of state.

He would tell Jean he no longer has the confidence of the House of Commons and would likely ask her to call an election.

It would mark the fourth election in 5-1/2 years and, according to current opinion polls, would likely produce another minority government.

The Conservatives have been in power since 2006 and won a strengthened minority in the October 2008 election. (Reporting by Louise Egan; Editing by Rob Wilson and Jeffrey Hodgson)