TREASURIES-Long-dated debt dips on reduced safe-haven bid

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Tue Mar 2, 2010 3:53pm EST

* Optimism over Greece pares a safety bid for bonds

* Economic jitters curb losses ahead of Friday's payrolls

* ADP jobs, ISM services data on tap (Updates market action, adds new quote, changes byline)

By Richard Leong

NEW YORK, March 2 (Reuters) - Long-dated U.S. Treasuries dipped on Tuesday as growing optimism over financial aid for Greece from the European Union reduced a safety bid for low-risk government debt.

Nagging anxiety over the economy provided support for the bond market, mitigated a decline in Treasury demand from concerns over Greece. Traders were reticent to shrink their Treasuries holdings much in advance of Friday's employment report, analysts said.

"No one wants to be short going into the payroll number," said George Goncalves, head of U.S. interest rates strategy with Nomura Securities International in New York. "There has been some unwind of the flight-to-safety trade, but it hasn't completely gone away."

Prices on long-dated government debt ended lower for the first time in four sessions.

Benchmark 10-year Treasuries US10YT=RR were down 2/32 in price at 100-3/32. Their yield which moves inversely to price was 3.61 percent, up about 0.5 basis point from late Monday.

The 30-year bond US30YT=RR was down 6/32, yielding 4.57 percent. This was up from 4.56 percent late on Monday.

GREECE WORRIES RECEDE

Worries that Greece might be unable to service its debt have underpinned Treasuries prices in recent weeks.

Ongoing discussions between Greek and European Union officials had investors upping bets that debt-strapped Greece would get some sort of financial help. See [ID:nLDE6211N7].

Even if the EU and Greece strike a deal, signs of cracks in the economic recovery have fanned the perception that the Federal Reserve will cling to its near zero interest rate policy into late 2010. This will keep a floor on bond prices and a lid on yields, analysts said.

"We are taking a little bit of the bid away, but the market is not down that much," said Thomas Roth, executive director in U.S. government bond trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities USA in New York.

The market's resilience was notable among short-dated Treasuries with two-year prices US2YT=RR ending flat.

Traders will receive fresh snapshots on the U.S. jobs market on Wednesday -- planned layoff figures from Challenger, Gray & Christmas and readings on private payrolls from ADP.

The absence of net job creation since the U.S. economic growth returned in the second half of last year has worried economists and Fed policy-makers. Speculations over harsh winter storms on hirings have stoked bets that a decline in payroll would turn out larger-than-forecast in February.

White House economic adviser Larry Summers said late Monday that winter blizzards were likely to distort the February jobless figures. [ID:nN01115493]

"We are not getting the stable economic backdrop we should be getting at this point of the recovery," Nomura's Goncalves said. "Every (data) miss will keep a bid in the market."

Analysts recently polled by Reuters predicted the ADP will report that U.S. private payrolls likely shrank by 20,000 after a 22,000 decline in January.

In addition to the ADP and Challenger labor data, investors will digest services activity readings from the Institute for Supply Management. The services sector, which makes up more than 80 percent of the U.S. economy, has lagged behind its manufacturing counterpart in the current recovery.

(Additional reporting by Chris Reese; Editing by Diane Craft)

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