In Texas governor showdown, nice doesn't cut it

Texas Governor Rick Perry speaks during a news conference in Gainesville, Texas June 19, 2007.

HOUSTON (Reuters) - Tuesday's primary election to decide which Republican will run for Texas governor has put a spotlight on the party's national identity crisis after it lost the White House to Democrats in 2008.

One side of the showdown is incumbent Rick Perry, the state's longest-serving governor, representing social conservatives rooted in the politics of former President Ronald Reagan.

On the other is Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, a popular figure who has aimed at embracing more moderate Republicans and gained the endorsement of prominent party members like former President George H.W. Bush and former Vice President Dick Cheney.

As the race heated up in 2009, Hutchison led Perry in opinion polls as the Republican favorite for governor of the second most populous U.S. state after California.

But Perry has surged to a commanding lead by mobilizing his party's most conservative members and harnessing disenchantment with Washington-style politics and President Barack Obama that resonates with many Texans.

A University of Texas poll conducted in February put Perry well ahead with 45 percent of likely voters, versus 21 percent for Hutchison and 19 percent for Debra Medina, a conservative favored by many Tea Party Republicans. Tea Partiers grabbed headlines last year with protests against Obama's healthcare overhaul drive and $787 billion economic stimulus package.

Perry could win the primary outright and avoid an April runoff if he gains more than 50 percent of Tuesday's vote.

"He went as hard and as far right as you can get, understanding the Republican primary electorate," said Larry Sabato, political science professor at the University of Virginia. "It worked like a charm."

Hutchison initially adopted a "big tent" approach by appealing to moderate "country club" Republicans, taking softer stances on hot-button issues like abortion and embryonic stem cell research.

In doing so, she has alienated hard-line conservatives who are more likely to turn out to vote in primary elections, said Mark Jones, chairman of the political science department at Rice University in Houston.

The winner will likely face former Houston Mayor Bill White in the November general election. Political experts expect White to beat Houston businessman Farouk Shami in the Democratic primary on Tuesday.

THE WHOLE WASHINGTON PROBLEM

Perry refers to Hutchison as "Kay Bailout" because she supported a federal stimulus package backed by Obama, and "he has done a very good job of pegging her with being part of the whole Washington problem," Jones said.

Hutchison is the only woman ever to serve as a U.S. senator from Texas and was first elected in 1993. She has insisted on many occasions that she has brought billions of dollars in funding back to the state.

Perry's incumbency would generally be a strength, but Hutchison has tried to use that against him by attempting to paint him as a creature of Austin, where he has held office since 2000. But Perry's portrayal of her as a Washington outsider largely stuck, analysts say.

Texas is not the only state with heated races.

That strident tone will likely permeate races in the congressional elections in November, where Republicans are looking to capitalize on voter disenchantment with Obama and big-bank bailouts.

"You see it all over the country, and candidates on the Republican side are scrambling so they don't fall in the Kay Bailey Hutchison trap of representing the establishment," Sabato said. "Nobody in the Republican Party wants to sing 'Kumbaya' right now."

At a February 7 rally where he received the endorsement of former vice presidential candidate and conservative darling Sarah Palin, Perry pounded away at Hutchison as a Washington insider who has put Texas' priorities behind political expediency.

"Do you want a leader that loves Texas and all it stands for or do you want a creature of Washington who turns and tears down Texas at every turn?" Perry asked.

Perry has labored to put as much distance as possible between himself and Washington by turning down some federal stimulus dollars and challenging the federal government's basis for regulating carbon dioxide emissions in court.

Hutchison has accused Perry of cronyism related to state highway construction projects, and drawn attention to a high dropout rate in the state's schools.

"It's time for honest conservative leadership and a governor who will remember who she works for," Hutchison said on a recent television ad.

None of the strategies has worked for Hutchison, said James Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas. "They never really settled on a story."

(Editing by Philip Barbara)