U.S. expects difficult days after Iraqi election

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates speaks to soldiers at F.O.B. Warrior in Kirkuk December 11, 2009.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The process of forming a new Iraqi government after Sunday's election will be long, difficult and possibly violent, U.S. officials said on Thursday.

"Given the stakes, given the efforts of people to secure political advantage, it would not be surprising to see violence during that period," one of the officials said, speaking to reporters on condition of anonymity.

On Sunday, millions of Iraqis go to the polls to vote for a full four-year parliament. It will be the second national election since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein. There is no clear front-runner among the political parties in what the official called an "extraordinarily competitive" election.

"We expect the election and the government formation process thereafter to be very hotly contested, and we anticipate a difficult process of government formation that could take some time."

The new government will be in place as the U.S. completes the withdrawal of its remaining troops by the end of 2011.

There are about 96,000 soldiers stationed in Iraq, but that number is due to be reduced to 50,000 by the end of August 2010. Despite fears of possible violence, the official said the pullout was on track.

He said Washington expected the Iraqi electoral commission to announce preliminary results on March 10-11, based on votes from about 30 percent of the polling stations.

The Iraqi supreme court would then certify the poll results, after hearing appeals, within about a month of the election, the official said.

"The chances of having an election that is perceived as legitimate and credible are reasonably high," he said.

"That said, we also anticipate, because the stakes are so high, we are going to see a lot of challenges, a lot of people on all sides claiming something was wrong and there was fraud."

'MONTHS, NOT WEEKS'

Along with other international observers, the United States plans to deploy 26 four-man teams in all provinces on election day to monitor turnout and look for voting irregularities.

The official said Washington expected the process of forming a new government to take "months, not weeks."

After the last national election in 2005, it took Iraq's feuding political parties about five months to agree on a prime minister and for his Cabinet to be approved.

Sunni Islamist al Qaeda took advantage of a power vacuum to launch attacks which sparked bloody sectarian violence that pitched the country toward civil war, killed tens of thousands and uprooted millions more from their homes.

"This is something we are watching very, very carefully because it has the potential to be a dangerous and volatile period," the official said.

U.S. officials have urged Iraqi political parties to form a government as quickly as possible and for Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's caretaker government to continue to maintain security and provide basic services during that period to ensure there is no power vacuum.

The official said Washington expected to see more violence in the run-up to Sunday's poll, and on election day, as spoilers sought to dissuade people from going to vote. Twelve people, including seven soldiers and police blown up by suicide bombers, were killed on Thursday.

But the top U.S. commander in Iraq, General Ray Odierno, is satisfied with the steps the Iraqis have taken to minimize violence, including a night-time curfew and a vehicle ban on election day, the official said.