NYMEX-Crude down on mixed economic data, technicals

Fri Mar 12, 2010 1:13pm EST

 * Consumer sentiment slips, weighing on crude
 * U.S. retail sales up unexpectedly in February
 * IEA raises global oil demand estimate for 2010
 * Coming up: U.S. industrial output Monday morning
 NEW YORK, March 12 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures fell
back below $81 a barrel on Friday, as downbeat consumer
sentiment data trumped an unexpected rise in retail sales,
clouding the economic recovery outlook.
 A break below trendline support for the front-month April
contract also triggered sell stops, traders and analysts said.
 "Looks like it broke trendline support around $81.64," said
Tom Bentz, broker at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc in New
York.
 U.S. consumer sentiment declined slightly in early March,
with Americans less positive about the job outlook, according
to Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's Surveys of
Consumers. [ID:nN12123839]
 Sales at U.S. retailers rose unexpectedly in February
despite a drop in vehicle purchases and inclement weather that
was expected to curtail shopping. [ID:nN12202974]
 January sales were, however, revised down to a gain of only
0.1 percent from the previously reported 0.5 percent rise.
 "People are taking profits after the recent surge to above
$83, and it looks like we've hit a double-top," said Mark
Waggoner, president of Excel Futures in Newport Beach,
California.
 "People are preparing for next week's roll to May before
the expiration of the April contract on March 22.... Some
people are thinking there is no reason to hold on to longs
here," Waggoner said.
 "At the same time, you're seeing a weakening of the stock
markets and that's also pulling down oil," he added.
 On Wall Street, prices were barely changed as the retail
sales data was offset by the weaker consumer sentiment, sending
mixed signals about the economic outlook. [.N]
 The dollar fell to a one-month low against the euro as risk
tolerance rose on strong euro zone economic data. [USD/]
 PRICES
 * On the New York Mercantile Exchange at 12:50 p.m. EST
(1750 GMT), April CLJ0 crude was down $1.17, or 1.42 percent,
at $80.94 a barrel, trading from $80.67 to $83.16, highest
front-month price since the 2010 peak at $83.95 on Jan. 11.
 * In London, April Brent crude LCOJ0 was down $1.21, or
1.51 percent, at $79.07 a barrel, trading from $78.81 to
$81.29.
 * NYMEX April RBOB RBJ0 dropped 3.04 cents, or 1.34
percent, to $2.2416 a gallon, trading from $2.2380 to $2.2952.
 * NYMEX April heating oil HOJ0 fell 3.28 cents, or 1.55
percent, to $2.0822 a gallon, trading from $2.0785 to $2.1442.
 * The April/April heating oil crack spread <0#CL-HO=R> was
at $6.51. It ended at $6.72 on Thursday. The April/April RBOB
crack spread <0#RB-CL=R> was at $13.21. It ended Thursday at
$13.31.
 * The spread between the current front month and the
five-year forward crude contract CLc61 was at $8.99, based on
the April 2015 contract Thursday settlement at $89.93. The
spread ended Thursday at $7.82.
 TECHNICALS
 NYMEX crude 10-day/20-day moving average: $81.12/$79.77
 Technical support/resistance:
 NYMEX crude: $80.81/$83.03
 NYMEX heating oil: $2.0840/$2.1460
 NYMEX RBOB: $2.2335/$2.31
 For a full report on technicals, click on [ID:nLDE62B16V]
 MARKET NEWS
 * International Energy Agency on Friday lifted its absolute
global demand estimate for 2010 from its forecast in February
due to rising demand in developing countries. [ID:nLDE62B19O]
 * IEA said global oil processing will rise by 50,000
barrels per day to 72.6 million in the second quarter compared
with the January-March first quarter. [ID:nLDE62B0RD]
 * Falling stocks and demand recovery will boost spot crude
prices this summer, moving the market into backwardation for
the first time since 2008, Goldman Sachs (GS.N) said.
[ID:nLDE62B0XV]
 (Reporting by Gene Ramos and Robert Gibbons; Editing by Lisa
Shumaker)


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