PREVIEW-D.Telekom's roadmap for future may lead nowhere

Mon Mar 15, 2010 11:13am EDT

* To present 'Strategy 2.0' on Wednesday

* Strategy will be no revolution - sources

* Not expected to address concerns on U.S. business

By Nicola Leske

FRANKFURT, March 15 (Reuters) - Deutsche Telekom (DTEGn.DE) chief executive Rene Obermann has been called many things but rarely a visionary and the roadmap for the years ahead he and his team will present this week is unlikely to change that.

Reminiscient of Web 2.0 -- the buzzword of 2004 for the development of the Internet to an interactive platform from a mere research tool -- Deutsche Telekom plans to present what it has dubbed "Strategy 2.0" to investors on Wednesday.

Those who hope it will offer solutions for long-term questions -- such as the turnaround of its U.S. business and the increasing threat that cable operators pose to the company's fixed-line business -- are likely to be disappointed.

Obermann told German magazine Der Spiegel in December the strategy would fundamentally renew the telecom group but company sources have cautioned not to expect too much, saying Strategy 2.0 does not "signify a revolution but more of an evolution".

In essence, Strategy 2.0 is expected to be a continuation of what the company has called connected life and work -- a phrase for a number of services around devices and the Internet.

On Wednesday, Deutsche Telekom will try to convince investors that the new strategy will safeguard future growth but analysts do not expect much of an impact.

Addressing what it calls the "gigabyte society", Deutsche Telekom wants customers to get all possible services from the telecoms operator in a way that smoothly connects mobile phones, laptops and televisions.

Services include data storage or online payment as well as managing home appliances when users are on the road. It hopes to generate major revenue streams with those services in the short term, according to a media report.

Deutsche Telekom will also announce plans to merge fixed-line and mobile businesses abroad after combining the divisions in Germany, a person close to the matter said.

Improving its position on international markets and network upgrades are also part of the strategy, the person said.

Analyst expectations are low going into the event.

"We think the 'Strategy 2.0' is focused on increasing customer loyalty and thus stabilising the EBITDA level," WestLB analyst Tarkan Cinar said, adding "this will be challenging as the company has an inferior fixed network compared to cable operators".

Cinar said he did not expect to see a significant impetus from Strategy 2.0.

Thomas Friedrich of UniCredit warned that while Strategy 2.0 may not be a disruptive change it would show "many strong small aspects" that would improve the business.

"On the U.S. I expect they will detail the problems and what they plan to do to pave the way for a turnaround of the business there but there will likely not be an announcement of a sale or an acquisition in line with recent management comments," he said.

Deutsche Telekom's T-Mobile USA is the No. 4 player in the United States. Once the group's cash cow, it has been struggling with little or no growth in the past quarters.

Deutsche Telekom has been mulling options such as a public listing of part of the business as well as a sale or a partnership to improve its position but has repeatedly said it was in no rush to make a decision.

The group has been at pains to please shareholders, among them the German government with a stake of around 30 percent and private equity firm Blackstone (BX.N) with around 5 percent.

Last month, it announced it planned to pay out around 10 billion euros ($13.75 billion) via dividends and share buybacks over three years. The move was met with some scepticism and hardly moved the stock.

Obermann -- sometimes called Dobermann for his pushy style -- cut short his education to set up his own telecoms company in 1986 and is known to be an excellent salesman.

He is also credited for being a hard-line, goal-oriented manager when he headed Deutsche Telekom's mobile division before taking the helm at the group in November 2006.

But critics say he lacks the audacity to make bold decisions while struggling with the constraints imposed on him by having the government as a stakeholder. (Editing by David Cowell)

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