Analysts view: Early results from Iraq's election

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's State of Law coalition pulled ahead in early results released from Iraq's March 7 national polls.

Maliki's bloc is trailed by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi's Iraqiya list, a cross-sectarian, secularist group that fared well in Sunni areas, and the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), a rival to Maliki for the Shi'ite vote that is dominated by the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (ISCI).

The vote remains fragmented, and no single bloc is expected to win a majority, which suggests a long and fractious road to forming a government lies ahead.

In northern Iraq, the ruling Kurdish alliance dominated largely autonomous Kurdistan and was running slightly behind in the disputed city of Kirkuk. But Goran, a Kurdish reform movement, was eating away at the alliance's hegemony.

Below are initial assessments from Iraqi and foreign analysts on what the initial results mean for Iraq.

TOBY DODGE, ANALYST, QUEEN MARY, UNIVERSITY OF LONDON

"It now appears to be all about the coalition. If Maliki is strong enough to build the group that can keep him in power and if so, on what ideological basis; sectarianism or some form on nationalism?

"Given his behavior during the campaign, I would bet on sectarianism and some form of alliance with all or elements of the Iraqi National Alliance (INA)."

WAYNE WHITE, SCHOLAR AT THE MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE

"A sizeable Allawi win in the north and west could generate even more robust efforts to disqualify him and others running on the Iraqiya slate following the election.

"Although the margin is very slim at present with around a third of the votes still to be tallied, an Iraqiya win in Kirkuk, probably would trigger much greater tension there as Kurds press even harder to have the city placed under Kurdish domination once and for all.

"A very narrow triumph on the part of either Iraqiya or the Kurds in Kirkuk almost certainly would spawn a wave of fraud accusations on the part of the losers."

REIDAR VISSER, IRAQ EXPERT, WWW.HISTORAE.ORG

"Maliki's lead is convincing in Baghdad and areas to the south, but he is not performing well at all in the Sunni-dominated areas north of Baghdad. Iraq could end up with a situation where the party of the prime minister only has 1-2 percent in key areas like Anbar and Mosul.

"The de-Baathification campaign has clearly reduced his ability to rise above sectarianism and act as a national leader. Allawi is doing better in Shi'ite areas than Maliki is doing in Sunni areas, but the problem is that he may get a smaller total number of deputies and therefore will need more coalition partners to form a government."

DAVID MACK, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR AND SCHOLAR AT THE MIDDLE

EAST INSTITUTE

"If Maliki does in fact get the plurality of the vote, he will need coalition partners to form a government, and he will need a cross-sectarian coalition to form a government that will have a good chance of bringing long-term stability to Iraq."

AQIL ABDUL HUSSEIN, PROFESSOR AT BASRA UNIVERSITY

"The results (in Basra, where Maliki has a large lead) were to a large extent predictable. They reflect the feelings of Basra residents, who have taken note of progress and security improvements over the past two years.

"I believe this election, and even quarrelling over the results, is a healthy experience and a step forward for Iraq's democratic experience."

DAVID NEWTON, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO IRAQ

"It probably means that (Maliki) gets first shot at forming a government. It remains to be seen which direction he will go. If he goes toward (ISCI) it will be taken very badly by the Sunnis.

"I think it's going to be another wild ride to see which way it goes. Iraqis seem to be able to solve things at 10 minutes after midnight after giving us quite a ride along the way."

KHALED SULEIMAN, POLITICAL ANALYST IN NORTHERN IRAQ

"The victory of the Kurdish alliance over Goran and the opposition parties was an expected result.

"It's hoped that in coming days Kurds will close ranks especially on issues related to Kurdish destiny such as recovering Kirkuk and the issue of Peshmerga (Kurdish forces).

"Kurds will have political weight. No government can be formed without Kurds. They are the fundamental part of Iraqi politics."

(Reporting by Aref Mohammed in Basra, Sherko Raouf in Sulaimaniya, Shamal Aqrawi in Arbil, Jim Loney in Baghdad; compiled by Missy Ryan; Editing by Samia Nakhoul)