Latinos press Obama to deliver immigration reform

PHOENIX (Reuters) - Hispanics, frustrated that President Barack Obama has yet to fulfill a pledge to revamp the immigration system, are warning him to deliver this year or face the consequences in congressional elections in November.

Tens of thousands of Latinos plan to rally in Washington on Sunday, cautioning that their support for Obama and his fellow Democrats, who face a struggle to hold their majorities in both houses of Congress, hinges on the issue.

But the event may be overshadowed by a vote that day in the House of Representatives on healthcare overhaul legislation that would be Obama's signature achievement so far.

Obama benefited in 2008 from a huge turnout of Hispanics, drawn by his promise to deliver immigration reform allowing millions of illegal immigrants a path to citizenship.

But that has been slowed by Obama's yearlong push for healthcare reform, efforts to revive the slumping economy and resistance in Congress after an immigration overhaul was torpedoed in 2007 under Republican President George W. Bush.

With November elections looming, analysts say time is running out to tackle the issue this year.

While Hispanics are seen as unlikely to switch support to Republicans, who have fought immigration reform without a clampdown on illegal immigrants, they could hurt Democrats by failing to turn out at the polls.

"We are still interested in seeing the Democrats succeed, and see Mr. Obama succeed," said Jorge-Mario Cabrera, of the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights of Los Angeles, which is sending delegates to the march.

"However, we also are telling Congress and the president that this particular promise is so essential to our community's well-being, to our families' well-being, to our nation's well-being, that if it's not kept, we will remember in the November elections," he said.

WORK IN THE SHADOWS

Immigration is a bitterly-fought issue in the United States where some 10.8 million illegal immigrants live and work in the shadows and where Hispanics, the largest immigrant group, are a rapidly increasing voting bloc.

Supporters of an overhaul say illegal immigrants fill the jobs that Americans are not willing to do, while opponents say they drive down wages and are a drain on government resources.

Dan Schnur, director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California, said lack of action on immigration posed a "real risk" for the Democrats in November elections for all House seats and one-third of the Senate seats.

"Most Latino voters are not going to shift over to vote for Republican candidates this fall, but motivating them to turn out for Democratic candidates will be a lot more difficult if they don't see any progress on immigration reform," he said.

While more than two-thirds of Hispanics in 2008's big turnout voted for Obama, analysts say inaction on immigration combined with the typically lower turnout in nonpresidential years could slash backing for Democrats.

Hispanics "won't be mobilized to go out and protect President Obama's majority, to protect the Democratic majority," said Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University in Texas.

That could sap Hispanic support for Democrats in the 30 to 35 House contested House seats, as well as in Senate races in Nevada, Colorado and Florida, states that Latinos helped clinch for Obama two years ago, Jones said.

Obama backs offering citizenship to illegal immigrants in good standing, while cracking down on employers who hire undocumented workers as well as tightening the border with Mexico.

On Thursday, he embraced a "promising, bipartisan framework" offered by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and Democratic Senator Charles Schumer.

Obama said the plan, which features a new high-tech identification card for U.S. citizens and legal immigrants who want a job, "can and should be the basis for moving us forward."

The plan also calls for bolstering border security, a new process for admitting temporary workers and a "tough but fair path" to legalization for those already in the country.

Latino activists praised the framework, but analysts are skeptical there will be enough time or political will to tackle the issue this year.

Conservatives, angry that there was not stronger border enforcement, helped sink an attempt at an overhaul in 2007, which would have included a guest-worker program for illegal immigrants.

Republicans and Democrats have since been leery about taking on immigration. It remained unclear this week if Graham would be able persuade any Republican senators to join a renewed effort.

(Editing by Vicki Allen)