Resilient militant networks test Russian security

LONDON (Reuters) - The Chechen rebel leader who said he ordered the attack on Moscow's Metro can tap into an ample supply of would-be suicide bombers bent on revenge if he wants to make good on a pledge to strike Russia's heartland.

After Monday's bombing, which killed 39 people, Doku Umarov is also well placed to deepen possibly lucrative ties to an admiring global community of Islamist radicals, analysts say.

The attack by women suicide bombers thrilled online al Qaeda sympathizers.

"The lionesses have roared, striking fear into the hearts of the unbelievers," ran one adulatory comment on the Arabic-language Ansar al-Mujahideen jihadist forum, according to the U.S.-based Site Intelligence Group monitoring company.

In a video on an unofficial Islamist rebel website www.kavkazcenter.com, Umarov said he had personally ordered the attacks. He said attacks on Russia would continue.

A decade ago Chechnya was the destination of choice for footloose foreign militants, and Monday's attack is likely to have gone some way to restoring its attraction.

But Umarov does not have to go overseas to recruit foot soldiers for his declared aim of creating a pan-Caucasus, sharia-based state separate from Russia.

Drawing on a deep well of anger at home, the veteran field commander can call on would-be suicide bombers ready to make good on his threat to spread the insurgency to Russian cities.

"BLACK WIDOWS"

"Their world has already been destroyed. In turn, they want to destroy," said James Sherr, head of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Britain's Chatham House think tank.

Chechen rebels have a record of deploying suicide bombers -- usually women nicknamed "black widows" in Russia -- in attacks. In one of the most spectacular attacks, two Chechen women downed two Russian airliners in a simultaneous bombing attack in 2004.

Many of the women were revenge-fueled widows of husbands killed in clashes with Russian troops. Others had lost brothers. They came from all walks of life: As well as the poorly-educated or impressionable, they included accountants and academics.

Some analysts expect potential suicide bomber candidates will have been identified and recruited, possibly as part of a highly disciplined suicide unit apparently reactivated in 2008.

"There are lots of women who've been raped or lost husbands in Chechnya," said Brian Glyn Williams, associate professor of Islamic history at the University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth.

"Plus, they are coming out of the Soviet experience and tend to be empowered and capable of independent action."

North Caucasus expert Adam Dolnik said the Moscow bombing and a November 2009 train attack that killed 26 people suggested Umarov, who styles himself the "Emir of the Caucasus Emirate," had lost an earlier distaste for killing civilians.

"This suggests Umarov could take the frustrated step of attacking civilians again to attract the attention that used to exist. That's coming back and it's going to hit in a big way."

The networks required to deploy the bombers have survived a determined counter-terrorism effort by the Kremlin, experts say.

Henry Wilkinson of Janusian security consultants in London said he doubted whether the bombers would have struck on Monday "if they weren't capable of sustaining these operations.

"What suicide bombers require is recruiting, inculcating, training, someone to take them to the target. It's clear those networks still exist."

BESLAN SCHOOL HOSTAGE CRISIS

Umarov's motivations are seen by foreign analysts on balance as more nationalist than Islamist, although that is unlikely to prevent him accepting overseas help if it is offered.

Williams said Umarov was not "a transnational jihadi.

"He borrows the rhetoric of jihad, but ultimately his concern is not Iraq or Afghanistan. His message to Moscow is 'You said Chechnya was pacified. But look, we're still here."

Monday's attack, if indeed carried out by his followers, may also have something to do with militant politics: Some see Umarov as anxious to reimpose his authority on the insurgency.

Dolnik describes Umarov, in his mid 40s, as a "dry" personality without the leadership savvy or charisma of earlier Chechen leaders, and vulnerable to accusations that he has not been as militarily active as other leaders in the region.

"Umarov has found it very difficult to compete with his colleagues in Ingushetia and Dagestan. The Caucasus emirate is him trying to compensate for his lack of appeal to the remainder of the groups and an attempt to reassert himself," he said.

(Reporting by William Maclean, Editing by Janet Lawrence)