PREVIEW-China Q1 GDP to accelerate, inflation may ease

* WHAT: China first-quarter GDP and March economic
indicators from the NBS

* WHEN: Thursday, April 15 at 0200 GMT

* REUTERS FORECASTS: (all expressed as pct chg y/y)

POLL

MEDIAN RANGE PVS YR AGO SIZE
GDP 11.5 10.3/13.5 10.7 6.2 23
CPI 2.6 1.0/3.2 2.7 -1.2 22
PPI 6.5 5.1/7.2 5.4 -6.0 21
Ind. Production 18.0 13.8/22.0 20.7 8.3 21
Retail Sales 17.9 17.0/25.6 17.9 14.7 21
Urban FAI 26.0 19.8/28.5 26.6 28.6 20

(GDP and Urban Fixed Asset Investment are for the first
quarter; previous for FAI, retail sales and industrial
production are Jan-Feb combined)

* FACTORS TO WATCH:

If the median forecast of 11.5 percent is accurate, China
will log its fastest year-on-year rate of growth since the
third quarter of 2007.

Twenty-one out of 23 economists polled expect GDP growth to
have accelerated from the 10.7 percent rate of the last quarter
of 2009 due to a low base of comparison. In the first three
months of 2009, GDP rose only 6.1 percent from a year earlier.

The National Bureau of Statistics might release
quarter-on-quarter GDP data for the first time, which would
give a much clearer picture of underlying momentum and whether,
as some fear, China's economy is heading towards overheating.

Consumer inflation is expected to have eased a touch in the
year to March. Although above the 2.25 percent one-year bank
deposit rate, meaning savers are losing money in real terms, it
would still be within Beijing's comfort zone of up to 3
percent.

* MARKET IMPACT:

If the figures surprise on the upside -- say, with GDP
growth above 12 percent and inflation topping 3 percent --
speculation will heat up again of imminent tightening to cool
down the economy. The People's Bank of China has raised reserve
requirements twice this year but kept interest rates on hold.

Strong economic growth could also make Beijing more
confident about allowing the yuan CNY=CFXS to strengthen.

Breakdown of forecasts (pct change y/y):

GDP CPI PPI IP RS FAI
ANZ 11.6 3.2 6.0 13.8 19.2 28.5
Bank of East Asia 12.0 2.6 5.8 21.5 19.0 26.0
BNP Paribas 11.5 2.7 7.2 17.1 17.5 26.0
BoA Merrill Lynch 11.8 2.6 6.5 17.3 17.5 27.1
China Merchants Bank 10.3 1.0 5.5 20.6 25.6 19.8
China Construction Bank 12.0 2.6 6.2 18.5 17.3 23.7
CICC 11.5 2.5 6.2 19.5 18.0 26.5
Daiwa 11.5 3.0 6.6 18.3 18.0 26.0
Essence Securities 11.5 2.6 5.9 18.0 18.1 26.0
Fortune Trust 11.5 2.6 5.9 19.5 17.8 24.0
Galaxy Securities 11.0 2.6 6.0 18.0 17.5 27.0
High Frequency Economics 12.1 2.4 5.1 13.9 19.3 ~
ICBC 12.3 2.8 6.5 22.0 18.0 25.0
Industrial Bank 11.5 2.3 6.4 17.5 17.4 27.7
Industrial Securities 12.0 3.0 7.1 18.0 17.3 24.0
ING 11.5 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
J.P. Morgan 11.3 2.6 7.2 15.4 17.5 26.0
Morgan Stanley 12.0 2.5 6.8 18.0 18.0 25.0
Sealand Securities 10.5 2.5 6.5 15.0 17.0 25.5
RBS 11.1 2.5 ~ 20.0 18.0 ~
Shenyin Wanguo Securities 11.5 2.7 7.0 ~ ~ 26.5
SJS Markets 13.5 2.7 6.8 19.4 18.8 21.9
UBS 11.2 2.3 6.0 18.0 17.5 26.5

LINKS:

* February's economic indicators [ID:nBJL002012]

* China indicators fixed page ECONCN

* All China economic data <CN/DATA>

* For a preview of China's loan data [ID:nTOE63502B]

* For a preview of China's trade data [ID:nTOE63501Z]
(Reporting by Beijing economics team; Editing by Alan
Wheatley)