WRAPUP 2-U.S. EIA lowers global oil demand growth forecast

Tue Apr 6, 2010 5:09pm EDT

 * World oil demand to grow nearly 1.5 mln bpd in 2010
 * EIA revises down global oil demand by 10,000 bpd
 * Europe demand revised down 170,000 bpd, China up 90,000
 * U.S. summer gasoline demand to rise just 0.5 percent
(adds graphic on global oil demand growth, comment from energy
analyst)
 By Tom Doggett and Ayesha Rascoe
 WASHINGTON, April 6 (Reuters) - Global oil demand growth
this year is expected to be slightly lower than previously
forecast as weaker European consumption has overshadowed higher
Asian, namely Chinese, demand, the U.S. Energy Information
Administration said on Tuesday.
 In its latest forecast, the EIA said world petroleum
consumption this year will rise by nearly 1.5 million barrels
per day, 10,000 bpd lower than its estimate last month, from
2009's total to 85.5 million bpd this year.
 The 1.5 million bpd growth is the result of an expected
recovery in the global economy, with world gross domestic
product seen rising by 3 percent this year, the EIA said.
 However, "EIA has revised its assessment for Asia upwards
and Europe downwards for 2010 in response to preliminary
first-quarter data for those regions," the agency said.
 European oil demand was lowered by 170,000 bpd, while that
for China, the fastest growing oil consumer, rose 90,000 bpd.
 Fuel costs have risen in Europe as the euro has lost ground
against the dollar due to concerns over Greece's debt, while
greenback-denominated oil has risen in the first quarter.
 The EIA's global oil demand estimate for 2010 was between
last month's demand forecast from the International Energy
Agency's of 86.57 million bpd and the Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries' forecast of 85.24 million bpd.
 The IEA's new monthly oil demand forecast will be released
on April 13, followed by OPEC's on April 14.
 On the global supply front, the EIA raised its forecast for
non-OPEC crude oil production growth this year by 50,000 bpd
from the agency's prior estimate.
 The agency said said it now expected non-OPEC oil output to
increase by 600,000 bpd this year to an average 50.88 million
bpd.
 The additional non-OPEC supplies was offset by the expected
90,000 bpd increase in Chinese oil demand this year.
 That helped tighten the gap between global surplus oil
supplies and demand by 40,000 bpd to just 160,000 bpd in 2010.
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For a graphic on global oil demand growth, please click:
here
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 HIGHER GASOLINE PRICES TO SAP U.S. DEMAND
 Total oil demand in the United States, the world's top
energy consumer, will rise 150,000 bpd to 18.84 million bpd
this year,
 However, that growth was also revised down 50,000 bpd from
its previous forecast as U.S. fuel prices this summer will sap
gasoline demand, the EIA said.
 U.S. gasoline demand this summer is forecast to increase
just 0.5 percent, or 45,000 bpd, to 9.164 million bpd compared
with last summer, the EIA said.
 "The boost to gasoline consumption from the economic
recovery is being countered by higher gasoline prices compared
with last year," the EIA said.
 The retail price for gasoline this summer driving season,
which runs from April through September, is expected to average
$2.92 a gallon, up 48 cents from last summer. The EIA said U.S.
pump prices will likely exceed $3 at times during the summer,
however.
 Tim Evans, energy analyst with Citi Futures Perspective in
New York, said he does not think rising gasoline prices are
justified with U.S. fuel inventories high and consumer demand
for gasoline weak.
 "Prices are being supported by a flow of investment buying
(in energy commodities), not by physical demand growth, in my
view," he said.
 Gasoline production by U.S. refiners is expected to be down
119,000 bpd compared with last summer. That means in order to
meet demand, the U.S. will have to rely on imports, fuel
inventories and more ethanol blending that stretch supplies.
 "Refinery production of gasoline will be under considerable
downward pressure from growth in fuel ethanol blending and the
current high level of gasoline inventories," the EIA said.
 Gasoline imports are forecast to increase slightly this
summer, just 3,000 bpd more, while the withdrawal rate for U.S.
gasoline stocks is projected to more than triple to 87,000 bpd
this summer.
 Ethanol blending in gasoline this summer is expected to
increase by almost 100,000 bpd, and account for about 8.9
percent of the total U.S. gasoline consumed.
 The EIA said U.S. gasoline stocks totaled 224 million
barrels on the April 1 start to the summer driving season, up 7
million barrels from last year.
 (Reporting by Tom Doggett and Ayesha Rascoe; Editing by
Marguerita Choy; Editing by David Gregorio)






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