TEXT-Fitch rates Southern Copper proposed snr unsecured bond
(The following statement was released by the rating agency)
April 6 - Fitch Ratings has assigned a 'BBB' rating to
Southern Copper Corporation's (SCCO.N) (SCC) proposed senior
unsecured bond up to US$1.5 billion, which will be comprised of
two tranches with maturities of 2020 and 2040, respectively.
The bond will be issued directly through SCC and the proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes including capital expenditures.
SCC's Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and debt ratings are as follows:
--Local currency IDR 'BBB';
--Foreign currency IDR 'BBB';
--Unsecured debt issuances 'BBB'.
The Rating Outlook is Stable. SCC had US$772 million of cash and cash equivalents and US$1.3 billion of total debt, and generated US$1.8 billion of EBITDA and US$1.4 billion of funds from operations (FFO) as of Dec. 31, 2009.
These last two figures represent a decline from US$2.5 billion and US$1.6 billion, respectively, during 2008. The drop in SCC's profitability in 2009 was a result of lower average copper prices of around US$2.49 as well as lower sales volumes.
Despite the difficult market conditions during the first half of last year, SCC ended 2009 with a strong credit profile relative to its rating category.
The company's FFO interest coverage was a comfortable 14.3 times (x), while its net debt/EBITDA ratio was 0.3x and FFO adjusted leverage was 0.9x, respectively.
SCC also has a comfortable liquidity position for its rating category, with only US$10 million of short-term debt maturing during each year from 2010 to 2013.
The company's EBITDA margin for the year was 48.6%, reflecting SCC's low cash cost of copper production of US$0.36 per lb including by-products and US$1.36 per lb excluding by-products. 70% of SCC's sales in 2009 were derived from copper, 12% from molybdenum, 7% silver, 5% zinc and 6% other material that includes gold, lead and sulfuric acid.
Supplementing the company's strong financial profile, Fitch's credit ratings of SCC continue to reflect its leading market position in copper, with the company ranking eighth globally for copper production in 2009 with 485,000 metric tons of mined copper.
SCC owns and operates four geographically diversified large-scale open pit mines that possess the highest ranking average mine life among global copper producers, calculated at 81 years (pro forma for Cananea production).
In addition, SCC ranks first worldwide in terms of contained copper reserves with 55 million metric tons, followed by Codelco with 53 million metric tons and Freeport with 36.3 million metric tons, as calculated by reserves divided by 2009 production levels.
Fitch's base case forecast for SCC during 2010 results in a growth in EBITDA to approximately US$2 billion with an EBITDA margin of over 50%, and conservatively excludes this year's tentative contributions from Cananea. The main drivers for this growth include improved copper prices vis-a-vis 2009 that are conservatively expected to average around US$2.85 per lb for 2010, along with sustained demand fuelled by China which accounted for over 36% of global copper demand last year.
The projected leverage ratio including the proposed unsecured bond issuance is expected at the end of the year in the region of 1.4x total debt to EBITDA. Other factors expected to contribute to improved operating profits during 2010 are the completion of copper production expansion projects along with the reactivation of operations at Cananea following the Federal Court's ruling on Feb. 11, 2010 in favor of SCC.
This ruling has effectively put an end to the strike that has lasted over 2.5 years, with SCC permitted to terminate all existing labor contracts and begin the process of paying severance to the workers. The company expects to regain control of the mine in the second quarter of 2010 with a start-up cost of around US$50 million-US$60 million, and anticipates rehiring a proportion of former workers under new contracts and affiliated to a different union.
Production at Cananea is expected to reach full capacity between three to six months after SCC regains access to the mine, which has a standalone production capacity of approximately 180,000 metric tons per year. SCC is continuing with its sizeable capital expenditure program with around US$800 million expected for 2010 and US$1.2 billion in 2011, respectively. The majority of this investment is being used for production expansion at La Caridad, Cuajone and Toquepala along with the Greenfield Tia Maria project in Peru, which is expected to produce an additional 120,000 metric tons per year on a standalone basis by 2011.
The Toquepala concentrator expansion is expected to be completed by 2012 with an annual estimated production of 100,000 metric tons. The combined investment program is expected to add approximately 342,000 metric tons of additional copper production to SCC's current copper production capacity. SCC's credit ratings reflect its position as Grupo Mexico's main operating subsidiary, and the priority position of its creditors.
Further supporting the ratings, the company's net debt to EBITDA ratio during the last five years has averaged just 0.2x. At the consolidated Grupo Mexico, S.A. de C.V. (Grupo Mexico: IDR rated 'BBB-' by Fitch) parent level in 2009, cash and marketable securities were US$1.4 billion and total debt was US$3.4 billion, with EBITDA and FFO of US$2.1 billion and US$1.3 billion, respectively. SCC contributed 80% of consolidated EBITDA to Grupo Mexico for 2009. Possible rating concerns involve common themes in large mining companies, such as event risk and cyclicality of prices and demand. However, SCC's position as a leading low-cost copper producer combined with its comfortable liquidity position and conservative capital structure maintained over the past five years ensures it is well placed to weather a significant downturn in the market.
Assuming no change in current financial policies, a key factor in upward mobility of the rating will be an increase in SCC's operational and financial scale combined with a substantially diversified product and geographic mix.
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