WEEKAHEAD-The view from Reuters editors in the Americas

Fri Apr 23, 2010 5:09pm EDT

MARKETS- A fresh slab of earnings, a record dose of Treasury bond auctions and a two-day Fed meeting await investors next week, creating a potentially toxic brew for a stock market that still looks tenuous at current levels from a technical point of view. The chain of big-name earnings starts with Caterpillar (CAT.N), followed by Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) and a slew of others, testing the thesis that this could be a record earnings season in terms of the percentage of companies beating estimates. Meanwhile, the bond market, coming off a rare two-week period without auctions, will wrestle with $129 billion of new Treasuries. Investors won't forget the poor batch of sales the last time the government sold the same maturities on the auction block. And, in the foreign exchange market, Greece will remain the big show, pushing and shoving the euro around the lower 1.30 level against the dollar. chris.sanders@thomsonreuters.com

G20/IMF - The annual spring meetings of the IMF/World Bank combined with a G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors continues in Washington on Saturday and Sunday. The European sovereign debt crisis and financial regulation to prevent another global banking crisis and recession are the big themes. Some finance ministers and central bank governors are moving onto to events in New York on Monday. william.schomberg@thomsonreuters.com

FINANCIAL REGULATION - A financial regulation bill hits the Senate floor next week as Goldman Sachs (GS.N) defends itself on Capitol Hill, and we will get a blow-by-blow insider's view of the debate at the Reuters Financial Regulation Summit in Washington. Democrats look close to securing some needed Republican votes in the Senate to overcome procedural roadblocks. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has set a vote for Monday that could clear the way for the Senate to begin debating a financial regulatory overhaul bill [ID:nN22249697].At the Summit, we will hear from Gary Gensler, chairman of the CFTC; Sander Levin, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee; Mary Schapiro, SEC chairwoman; and Phil Angelides of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. For energy markets, the main event will be the end of the 90-day comment period on the CFTC's proposal to apply position limits to oil and gas markets, a plan that critics say risks crimping liquidity and driving trade to less-restrictive overseas markets simon.denyer@thomsonreuters.com

GOLDMAN - Tensions will run high on Tuesday when Goldman Sachs (GS.N) CEO Lloyd Blankfein emerges from the shadows to testify before a Senate committee looking into the role of investment banks in the subprime mortgage disaster [ID:nN22195492]. Facing its biggest crisis in years, Goldman has mounted a public relations counteroffensive against charges by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that it defrauded investors in the way it structured and marketed a subprime mortgage product that later blew up. Current and former Goldman officials, including Fabrice Tourre, the Goldman employee who was charged by the SEC, are also scheduled to testify. karey.wutkowski@thomsonreuters.com

U.S. ECONOMY - The housing market led the United States into recession but is not necessarily leading it out again. The Case-Shiller house price indices are due Tuesday and are expected to see continuing weakness in house prices after stabilizing for a few months in late 2009 following a sharp fall in late 2008. Manufacturing and inventory rebuilding has been leading the U.S. economic recovery, as the first estimate of US Q1 GDP due Friday is seen confirming, with annualized growth for the quarter of 3.5 percent. timothy.ahmann@thomsonreuters.com

FED MEETING - The Federal Reserve's FOMC will hold its next policy meeting Tuesday and Wednesday but is expected to surprise no one by holding interest rates near zero and repeating its vow of an extended period of very low rates at the conclusion of a two-day policy meeting. With the Fed's purchases of mortgage-related debt completed and all liquidity programs except one aimed at commercial mortgage-backed securities closed, the U.S. central bank could comment on the improved functioning of financial markets. Fed chairman Bernanke also testifies next week at Obama's fiscal commission. timothy.ahmann@thomsonreuters.com.

CLIMATE CHANGE - Senators assembling a bipartisan draft climate bill are expected to unveil it on Monday, April 26, but may again face delays due to a crowded congressional calendar and competing priorities. It's been a long road for the trio of Sens. Kerry, Graham and Lieberman, but more details of the bill are now coming clear: a contentious fuel "fee" appears to be out; incentives to build a dozen nuclear power plants is in. russ.blinch@thomsonreuters.com

BUFFETT - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa.N) appeared to affirm his commitment to Goldman, with a board member telling Bloomberg that the Oracle of Omaha was comfortable with Berkshire's $5 billion investment in the investment bank. Will Buffett's loyal followers be as relaxed? They gather for the annual shareholders' meeting on Saturday, May 1, which will be followed by an eagerly anticipated news conference with Buffett on Sunday. The annual meeting will be better attended than ever after Berkshire's recent stock split. jon.stempel@thomsonreuters.com

WELLPOINT - Results on Wednesday from WellPoint WLP.L, the largest insurer by membership, take on added significance after our exclusvie report on Thursday that the company routinely targeted breast cancer patients [ID:nN20207082]. The news provoked an angry response from Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sibelius [ID:nN23157689] and is likely to further mar what was already expected to be an uninspiring set of results. We also get numbers on Thursday from Aetna (AET.N), which said last month its 2010 results were off to a good start, and from rival pharmacy benefit managers Medco Health MHS.N and Express Scripts (ESRX.O), which are expected to report higher profits on Wednesday. lewis.krauskopf@thomsonreuters.com

EARNINGS - The second peak week of the results season features reports from some of the biggest industrial, consumer goods, media and health insurance companies. On Thursday, oil giants Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) and ConocoPhilllips (COP.N) will probably report that their bottom lines were boosted by the steady rise in oil prices in the first quarter, but weak refinery margins are expected to weigh. Results from Caterpillar (CAT.N) on Monday will provide some insight into the state of the economic recovery. For media companies, Comcast (CMCSA.O) (Tuesday), IAC (IACI.O) (Wednesday), Time Warner Cable (TWC.N) (Thursday), Viacom VIAb.N (Thursday) and Interpublic Group (IPG.N) (Thursday), comparisons against a weak year-ago quarter should make the numbers look rosy, but investors will be looking for meaningful revenue growth, as well as upbeat outlooks to justify a 70 percent rise in the S&P media index over the past year. Results from Procter & Gamble (PG.N) and Colgate-Palmolive (CL.N) (Thursday) will show whether increased marketing spending is spurring consumers to try a bevy of new products hitting the market. Unilever (ULVR.L) also reports quarterly results, giving investors an even broader view into the consumer psyche when it comes to buying household goods. tiffany.wu@thomsonreuters.com

THE MILKEN CONFERENCE - The Milken Institute holds its "Shaping the Future" conference in Los Angeles Monday to Wednesday. With such big-name private equity, corporate and policy speakers as Citadel's Ken Griffin; Avenue Capital's Marc Lasry; pay czar Ken Feinberg; Carlyle Group MD Robert Dove; PIMCO's Mohamed El-Erian; Cantor Fitzgerald's Steve Kantor; Apollo's Leon Black; TPG's David Bonderman; Morgan Stanley's Asia guru Stephen Roach; CBS CEO Les Moonves; Viacom's Sumner Redstone; News Corp's COO Chase Carey; Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff; Biz Stone of Twitter; Activision Blizzard's CEO Robert Kotick; AMD CEO Dirk Meyer; Wynn Resorts chief Steve Wynn and many more. megan.davies@thomsonreuters.com

RIM - Research In Motion (RIM.TO)(RIMM.O) needs to produce evidence that it is close to unveiling a more consumer-friendly BlackBerry experience if it hopes to disarm critics who question its competitive chops [ID:nN21199214]. A growing chorus of analysts says Apple's (AAPL.O) iPhone, Motorola's MOT.N Droid and other rival smartphones could keep taking market share from the BlackBerry until RIM delivers an improved operating system and browser. That has heightened the anticipation surrounding RIM's annual Wireless Enterprise Symposium, which runs Tuesday to Thursday in Orlando, Florida. frank.mcgurty@thomsonreuters.com

ARGENTINA DEBT - Argentina is waiting for Italian securities regulators to approve its plan to offer new bonds and cash to investors holding about $20 billion in defaulted bonds left over from its 2002 economic crisis. Once approved, the offer will launch simultaneously in the United States, Italy, Luxembourg and Japan. The terms are known and imply steep losses for bondholders although with sweeteners for smaller investors. Some bondholders complain the offer is bad, but most are expected to take it, which will neutralize investor lawsuits and clear the way for Argentina to issue new global bonds for the first time since its massive default. fiona.ortiz@thomsonreuters.com

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