PREVIEW-Victoza growth path in focus ahead of Novo Q1

* First-quarter results due April 27

* Operating profit seen up 2 pct, sales seen up 8 pct

* Focus on recently launched potential blockbuster Victoza

* May narrow sales guidance to upper part of range

By Anna Ringstrom

COPENHAGEN, April 26 (Reuters) - The world's No.1 insulin maker Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO) is expected to deliver more solid results on Tuesday with investors watching closely for comments on new blockbuster hope Victoza.

Analysts on average expect a 2 percent year-on-year rise in group operating profit to 3.88 billion Danish crowns on the back of solid modern insulin sales, while higher research and marketing costs than a year earlier will weigh. [ID:nLDE63L0PB]

Beyond the results, investors will look for any adjustments to Novo's full-year guidance for an operating profit increase of 10 percent and sales growth of 6-10 percent, after prescription trends suggest Victoza has topped expectations during its first weeks on sale in the United States.

After delays, the new-generation type 2 diabetes drug was launched in nine European countries last year, and in the United States in February.

Shares in Novo have soared 35 percent this year, widely outperforming the STOXX Europe 600 Health Care index .SXDP, up 4 percent.

Novo's biggest new drug hope, due for launch in Japan in the second quarter, is expected to generate annual sales of more than $1.4 billion by 2014, according to consensus forecasts compiled by Thomson Reuters.

Novo expects it to be a blockbuster, meaning it would reach sales of $1 billion within its first five years on the market, despite the U.S. approval including a boxed cancer warning.

"With a strong initial Victoza launch in Europe and in the U.S., we expect a bullish tone from management on its long term commercial potential," Jefferies, which has a "buy" recommendation on the Novo stock and a target price of 500 crowns, said in a note.

"This is important from an investor sentiment perspective given the likely entry of once-weekly competitors in the second half of 2010 (Bydureon) and 2012 (taspoglutide)."

Eli Lilly (LLY.N) and Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc (AMLN.O) expect U.S. approval later this year for Bydureon, a once-weekly version of their Byetta, after U.S. authorities in March requested more information on the drug. [ID:nLDE62E13Q]

Byetta and Victoza belong to the GLP-1 class of drugs that stimulate insulin production to regulate blood sugar levels.

Analysts have been impressed by IMS prescription data showing Victoza with more than 20 percent of new prescriptions in the U.S. GLP-1 market nine weeks after launch. A delay in the approval of Bydureon would give Victoza more time to establish itself in the market.

Taspoglutide, under development by Roche Holding AG (ROG.VX) and Ipsen SA (IPN.PA), is another experimental once-weekly GLP-1 drug for Type 2 diabetes. Novo Chief Scientific Officer Mads Krogsgaard Thomsen last week told Reuters demand for Victoza was following the firm's own "optimistic" expectations. [ID:nLDE63M070]

Eli Lilly on April 19 reported better-than-expected first-quarter results but cut its full-year profit forecast due to the newly passed U.S. healthcare overhaul. [ID:nN19188587]

For Novo's outlook, the healthcare reform was probably less of a concern, analysts said.

"We see the potential for 2010 sales guidance to be tightened," Morgan Stanley, which has an "overweight" recommendation and a target price of 495 crowns on the share, said in a note. "This reflects a more modest impact from U.S. Healthcare reform than previously thought."

Diabetes care products last year accounted for roughly three quarters of Novo's sales. Novo had 51 percent of the total insulin market and 45 percent of the modern insulin (insulin analogue) market, based on volume, at year-end.

Novo also makes haemophilia care, growth hormone therapy and hormone replacement therapy products. (Editing by David Cowell)