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Instant View: Analyst comments on possible UK coalition

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LONDON | Fri May 7, 2010 11:20am EDT

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain's opposition Conservatives said on Friday they would try to form a government with the smaller Liberal Democrats after winning the most seats in the closest parliamentary election in a generation.

Following are analyst comments on the prospects for a deal after the statement by Conservative leader David Cameron.

MARK WICKHAM-JONES, PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, BRISTOL

UNIVERSITY

"I just can't see how a deal would work, given there's such a gulf between them on electoral reform, such a gulf between them on Europe, it's really hard to see how they can find a common program.

"I still think the most likely outcome is a minority Conservative government. I just don't quite understand what Labour is doing, it's all looks quite a bit desperate.

"It looks as if (Gordon) Brown is determined to stay in power at any cost. He's so far short of a majority. It's such a distance between the Conservatives and him and it looks a bit tired playing the Prime Ministerial card.

"My interpretation would be that Cameron is making a few gestures but he's probably planning for a minority administration."

TIM BALE, SENIOR POLITICS LECTURER, SUSSEX UNIVERSITY:

"I thought it was very much an opening gambit."

"It's very difficult for me to imagine the Liberal Democrats going into a full-blown coalition with the Conservatives. You also have the individuals problem - where do you slot the Liberal Democrat leaders into a coalition government?"

"Formation of a minority government is relatively easy, the Lib Dems could abstain (on key votes). That is what goes on in Europe where governments are often tolerated rather than supported."

SIMON LEE, SENIOR POLITICS LECTURER, HULL UNIVERSITY

"It is very clear that Cameron is caught between a rock and a hard place. He has offered an all party inquiry into voting reform ... I doubt very much whether the Lib Dems would be prepared to settle for something as limited as that."

"He will already have been told by senior members of his shadow cabinet that if he was to offer for example a referendum on proportional representation, as Gordon Brown is doing, I think that would cause major problems in his party."

"At the moment, unless (Lib Dem leader) Nick Clegg is prepared to take a political risk and agree to support Cameron without a commitment to the key constitutional reform that his party has stood for at this election, we aren't going to have a coalition or some sort of political agreement between the Conservatives and Lib Dems."

"David Cameron in his statement was very careful to try to keep his party with him by making it clear that Trident and immigration and the European Union issues, where obviously the Liberal Democrats have very controversial policies ..., he is not prepared to compromise on those."

"So if both sides are not prepared to compromise, I cannot see any other alternative than another general election."

IVOR GABER, PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL JOURNALISM, CITY

UNIVERSITY, LONDON

"Cameron will have to offer far more than his opening bid. But the big question is will the Liberal Democrat MPs and members give it the fair wind it clearly needs. At this stage it looks doubtful."

"He's made an opening bid and it's far, far short. The only thing of substance that Cameron appeared to offer was electoral reform and then he said there would be a committee of inquiry. Well new Labour offered that and then just ignored it."

"They would have to go far further than that and at the very least it would have to be a referendum."

"The other point that would have caused a real problem for the Liberal Democrats, was the very strong statement that they removed Europe from the conversation, that's another big concern."

"It's either the opening shot or Cameron thinks that's as far as he can go to take his party with him. I don't think this is a deal but the conversation will continue."

"The Lib Dem membership and MPs would be much more comfortable with a Labour partnership but at the moment Nick Clegg rightly says Cameron has got the most seats and I'm going to have to talk to them."

"In one sense it would make it easier for Clegg to do a deal with Labour if they can't get anything sensible out of the Tories."

CHRISTIAN SCHWEIGER, POLITICS LECTURER, DURHAM UNIVERSITY:

"It will depend on the Liberal Democrats and how hungry for power they are...He (Conservative leader David Cameron) hardly addressed the issue of electoral reform and did not give any ground on moving to proportional representation."

"It might be more likely that they support a minority Tory government on individual issues like the budget or reform of the educational system. They may do this for a year or two and then see how things go."

(Reporting by Kylie MacLellan, Kate Holton and Keith Weir)

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