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Factbox: OECD economic outlook for non-G7 European countries
PARIS |
PARIS (Reuters) - The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said on Wednesday economic growth in its member countries was picking up faster than previously seen, but warned risks to the global recovery may have grown.
The organization said an encouraging outlook for growth could be jeopardized by "significant risks," pointing to the debt woes spreading among some euro zone members as well as overheating in emerging markets.
The following is a synopsis of the OECD's views of European non-G7 economies in its twice-yearly economic outlook:
AUSTRIA
The economic recovery is expected to strengthen with growth seen at 1.4 percent in 2010 and 2.3 percent in 2011, boosted by firming export demand and broadly supportive policy, though unemployment will persist and inflation remain subdued.
Fiscal consolidation planned for 2011, the specific measures of which have yet to be unveiled, should be tailored to boost growth and lower public spending. Sustained budget savings will demand comprehensive fiscal and administrative reform.
BELGIUM
Joblessness is seen rising until early next year, pushing up already high structural unemployment, despite a further recovery of growth to 1.4 percent this year and 1.9 percent in 2011.
Fiscal sustainability should be ensured by holding back spending at all levels of government and curbing the increase in costs related to an aging population. Labour market reforms are also necessary to help spur employment during the recovery.
DENMARK
The Nordic country's economy is expected to see a muted upturn, though continued policy stimulus this year should see the recovery broaden during 2011. Gross domestic product is seen growing 1.2 percent this year and 2.0 percent next year.
The general government deficit, seen at 5.5 percent of GDP in 2010 and 4.8 percent in 2011, remains historically high and the government should roll out consolidation from next year, accompanied by structural reforms to boost labor supply.
FINLAND
Economic growth is expected to accelerate gradually as overseas demand recovers further this year and confidence picks up, but unemployment is expected to rise until the end of this year and then only fall back slowly.
Significant fiscal consolidation measures will be needed to restore public finances, which are seen running a deficit of about 4 percent in 2010-2011, and is essential in the face of pressures from a rapidly aging population.
GREECE
The Greek economy has entered a protracted recession with gross domestic product set to shrink 3.7 percent this year and 2.5 percent in 2011.
It supported the government's forecast that it could reduce the public sector deficit to 8.1 percent this year, on the back of austerity measures worth 7.5 percent of GDP. It also put the deficit in 2011 at 7.1 percent.
The report, however, underlined that the forecasts were subject to very large risks and strong social opposition to the government's austerity measures could derail the implementation of the fiscal program.
ICELAND
The North Atlantic island nation has made considerable progress in reducing economic imbalances during the recession, providing a strong basis for recovery which should see it return to growth of 2.3 percent next year.
The government needs to remain on track with its measures to strengthen public finances while monetary policy should remain focused on creating a stable currency. Capital controls should remain until consolidation is well underway, banks back on their feet and international reserves sufficiently strong.
IRELAND
The Irish economy is close to a turning point after last year's severe recession, but it will take time for a broad-based recovery to emerge. The general government deficit is seen at 11.7 percent this year and 10.8 percent in 2011.
The 2010 budget is an important step toward stabilizing public finances and the emphasis on cutting costs rather than raising taxes is appropriate. However, the deficit remains very high and it is important that the government continues to meet its fiscal targets.
LUXEMBOURG
An upturn in economic activity, led by strong exports of financial services, is already in place and activity should continue to rise, helping generate growth of 2.7 percent this year and 3.1 percent in 2011.
Fiscal stimulus measures, as well as higher social spending and lower revenues, have weakened public finances and consolidation plans should be carried out to contain spending. Pension reform should also be a priority.
NETHERLANDS
The economic recovery so far has been weak but should strengthen through 2010 and 2011, but mounting public deficits, seen at 6.4 percent of GDP this year and 5.4 percent next year, could threaten fiscal sustainability if they are left unchecked.
The new government resulting from the upcoming elections should focus on restoring public finances as planned from 2011, focusing on spending cuts and holding back cost increases related to an aging population.
NORWAY
The Nordic country's economic recovery began earlier than in most other OECD countries and mainland GDP should be growing fast enough by 2011 to eliminate excess capacity through much of the economy.
Interest rates, which the central bank has already begun raising, should be hiked further to keep inflation under control while fiscal stimulus should also be moderated soon.
PORTUGAL
The public deficit is seen at 7.4 percent of GDP this year and 5.6 percent in 2011. The government's move to bring forward fiscal tightening and set more ambitious budget targets for 2011 was essential for investor confidence and access to overseas financing, the OECD said.
Looking ahead, the Portuguese government will need to adhere strictly to the new consolidation plan or risk jeopardizing fiscal sustainability and access to external financing. Moving toward a multi-year budget framework would enhance credibility.
SWEDEN
Economic activity is gaining momentum with growth seen at 1.6 percent this year and 3.2 percent in 2011, but the economic slack remains substantial and unemployment will remain high.
Central bank interest rates, which are set to begin rising fairly soon, should remain stimulative for some time. Once the economic recovery is firmly established, fiscal discipline will be needed to meet the medium-term budget surplus target.
TURKEY
Led by a recovery in exports, economic growth is seen at 6.8 percent this year and 4.5 percent next year. Still, not enough jobs will be created to absorb a swelling labor force and unemployment will rise further, hitting 15.9 percent in 2011.
Fundamental reforms of the labor market will be needed to bring down the high unemployment rate. Without new and more flexible rules, it will be difficult to create jobs on a competitive and sustainable basis.
(Reporting by Niklas Pollard; editing by Patrick Graham)
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