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Factbox: Crude, coal, funds and Colombia's next president
(Reuters) - Colombian former defense minister Juan Manuel Santos and independent Antanas Mockus face off on Sunday in a presidential vote that will likely see Santos elected on pledges to continue the incumbent's pro-investment policies.
Voters in Latin America's No. 4 oil producer will elect the heir to President Alvaro Uribe, who is credited with battering rebels and luring foreign investment, especially in the oil and mining sectors.
Both top contenders are seen further boosting foreign investment in the world's fifth largest coal exporter and third largest coffee shipper.
Here are some facts on their policies for commodities:
COAL, PORTS AND THE FUTURE
Both campaigns see metallurgical or coking coal as an underdeveloped area. Most of Colombia's exports are thermal coal from the nation's three big exporters, Drummond, Glencore and Cerrejon Coal Company.
Santos' campaign sees no change in regulation for coal. It estimates exports will double in the next few years from more than 60 million metric tons annually. It plans to expand railroads connecting central coal areas, smaller producers, with the major zones using some combination of public-private partnerships and concessions. Campaign officials say there will be "substantial intervention" in ports.
Most Colombian coal is moved by rail to ports for shipment. A smaller proportion is trucked to ports at higher costs. Mining companies own the ports, but some lease port capacity to mining collectives and traders.
Mockus' campaign also expects an increase in metallurgical coal exports in the next few years and increased exports to regional neighbors like Brazil. Small miners will be consolidated into associations or maybe cooperatives.
Mockus' campaign expects infrastructure investments, including those from the private sector, to rise to 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) annually in the next eight years from around 1 percent. He also talks about public-private partnerships.
OIL, CONTINUITY AND MONEY MANAGEMENT
Uribe attracted more investment in the oil sector by loosening regulations, creating a streamlined hydrocarbons agency and lowering taxes. Mockus and Santos pledge to continue Uribe's pro-investment policies. The nation has seen oil and mining investment jump to more than $6 billion in 2008/09 from around $500 million eight years ago.
Colombia says oil reserves could soar to 6 billion barrels over the next decade, and Bogota certified in May 3.1 billion barrels in proven, probable and possible oil reserves, double its average.
Colombia will auction off around 200 new exploration blocks next week in the port city of Cartagena. The sector has skyrocketed to growth of 11.3 percent annually in the fourth quarter of 2009 from just below 1 percent on average over the last 10 years, according to a note by Morgan Stanley.
Avoiding the resource curse -- where inflows from mining and energy push the local currency higher making non-energy exports uncompetitive -- will be a key challenge and both contenders have decided to set up an overseas fund.
Santos plans to reform the management of royalties, using about half or an estimated 1 percent of GDP for an intergenerational fund and half to be spent on infrastructure and promoting agriculture. Taxes and dividends from state oil company Ecopetrol will also be saved. He expects this to help achieve a fiscal deficit of below 1 percent -- from the current 4.4 percent of GDP for this year -- by 2014.
Mockus' campaign also plans a sovereign fund and will invest some of the expected boom in revenues in education and research and development. It will also use part of the royalties for infrastructure investment. Mockus' modification of the royalty system will depend on what competing countries do with their systems and he will look to modernize regulatory framework for environmental licenses, according to the campaign.
NATURAL GAS
Both top contenders say the Andean nation's natural gas regulation needs modifying to spur investment. Colombia has natural gas in 18 basins with seven in active production and reserves of nearly 4 trillion cubic feet (113.3 billion cubic meters), according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Santos' campaign pledges incentives for gas extraction and price incentives to pay for investments in transport and capacity. Either concessions or private-public partnerships would be the main avenue.
Mockus' team says that if new exploration does not translate into substantial finds in a "prudent" timeframe then it would look toward imports project.
The National Hydrocarbons Agency said on Friday that Colombia's 2010 natural gas production would remain similar to 2009 at 1.1 billion cubic feet (31.15 million cubic meters) per day due to capacity restrictions.
Sources: Campaign websites and officials
(Reporting by Jack Kimball; Editing by Sandra Maler)
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