Yuan can become alternative reserve currency to US dollar: ADB

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HONG KONG | Thu Jun 24, 2010 9:28am EDT

HONG KONG (Reuters) - China's yuan could rapidly become an internationally used currency and serve as an alternative to the U.S. dollar in central bank reserves, the Asian Development Bank said in a report on Thursday.

"The renminbi has yet to become an international currency. It could become one much more quickly than many anticipate," the ADB said in a joint study with Columbia University's the Earth Institute.

"The internationalization of the renminbi has the potential to become an alternative to the U.S. dollar -- as did the euro -- and help nudge the global reserve system toward a multi-currency reserve structure," it said.

The study, undertaken by 11 economists from around the world, including academics Joseph Stiglitz and Barry Eichengren, did not provide a timeline for when the yuan could become a reserve currency.

Most analysts expect it to be fully convertible by 2020, the target date set by Beijing to make Shanghai an international financial center.

Global financial markets have focused intensely this week on the yuan, or renminbi as it is also called, after China's central bank pledged at the weekend to increase currency flexibility after pegging the yuan to the U.S. dollar for nearly two years.

The yuan has moved in a wider range in the spot market since then, though it has only appreciated about 0.2 percent against the dollar.

The ADB study, entitled "The Future Global Reserve System -- An Asian Perspective," recommended having Asia's vast currency reserves play a more important role in stabilizing the global financial system, through swap lines, the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) and other borrowing.

The global financial crisis, which originated in the U.S. housing market, has sparked a growing discussion among policy makers and academics that the world should no longer rely on a single, dominant currency, such as the dollar, as it has done since the end of the gold standard.

The ADB study also endorsed the use of capital controls as a tool to strengthen management of an economy, with the caveat that they are temporary and coordinated.

"These controls on the flow of capital tend to be more effective when done on a coordinated basis across countries that are targets of rapid capital movements, rather than individual countries reacting unilaterally," the report said.

Taiwan implemented capital controls in November 2009, and Indonesia took steps to manage capital inflows last week. South Korea is planning to tighten currency derivative trading caps for foreign banks.

The study also said a common Asian currency is not a realistic goal, and regional monetary coordination should stop short of pegging currencies in the region.

Since 2000, global foreign exchange reserves have grown by a staggering $6.15 trillion and stood at $8.09 trillion at the end of 2009, or 14 percent of the world's gross domestic product, International Monetary Fund figures showed.

China and Japan together hold about 43 percent of global reserves.

(Reporting by Kevin Plumberg; Editing by Kim Coghill)

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Comments (2)
biztru wrote:
US and CHINA are not nemesis.

There are plenty to disagree about between them but there is one single unifying reason that overwrites all these uncomfortable thorns – an open international business and trading platform.

US should not allow CHINA to cloud its vision. While there is some truth to what many thought of US as being arrogant, the US did bring to light genuine international problems that cannot be overlooked – terrorism and extremism.

CHINA is never a terrorist or an extremist from the US perspective. The one and only threat posed is the possibility that CHINA can outperform the US in trade. Structurally CHINA will not be able to outperform the US in the field of international leadership, financial leadership, technology leadership, creativity leadership and many areas of humanities and psychology. All these don’t depend on population numbers like trade does.

Instead of boxing with CHINA, why don’t the US just rope in CHINA as one of its ally? Difference in ideology, not really both are market driven. CHINA is not communist rather it is paternalism. As CHINA opens up (when it believes US is a friend) paternalism will fast recede. To allow CHINA to do what it does best – Trade & Business, is key to winning over the entire CHINA and cement US’ position as the undisputed international leader. Even with CHINA taking the trade crown when it surpasses US’ trade, CHINA will still not want to lead the world although it may desire some respect as a genuine partner.

Hence US can safely look forward into the future. International trade regime, a new global currency reserve made up of a few major currencies and pulling itself out of its financial mess. The advent of a new global currency reserve is no longer a blurred vision but a reality in waiting. The Euro Dollar is an unmistakable sign of wanting of options. It won’t take long for the rest of the world to push towards that direction.

Jun 24, 2010 7:45am EDT  --  Report as abuse
@ biztru:

you have a rather optimistic and naive perception of China.

Frankly, the Chinese do not want to fit into the current world order. They want to establish a new world order like the one they created centuries ago where China ruled their sphere of influence, and all surrounding countries paid homage to China.

Like it or not, China does not care about the well being of anybody else….all they care about is maintaining and increasing power, and subjecting everyone else to their will.

This is not only their historical roots, but also their desired future.

Jun 24, 2010 5:31pm EDT  --  Report as abuse
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