Factbox: Top dealmakers quotes on 2010 first-half M+A
NEW YORK |
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Global mergers and acquisitions volumes in the first half of 2010 fell to their lowest level since 2004, hurt by continuing weakness from the economic crisis, European debt worries and market volatility.
Global M&A so far this year was worth just under $976 billion, according to Thomson Reuters data, down slightly from a year earlier, but far below the first half of 2007, M&A's peak year.
The following are quotes from top dealmakers on the weak first half, strength in emerging markets and expectations going forward.
LEE LEBRUN, CO-HEAD OF AMERICAS M&A AT SWISS BANK UBS (UBSN.VX)
"Overall, for the year, I expect a flat M&A market. Positives for the market are large cash balances. Cash represents 11 percent of total assets. Combined with low nominal interest rates, there has never been lower opportunity cost of cash."
"Corporations spent the past two years cutting costs and improving balance sheets. Looking forward, the focus will be on top-line growth and deployment of substantial cash balances, which should provide a tailwind for M&A."
"CEO confidence is a very real issue -- we saw a little bit of life in the first quarter, but the sovereign issue in Europe made some people nervous and pull back."
JEFFREY KAPLAN, GLOBAL HEAD OF MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS AT BANK OF AMERICA MERRILL LYNCH (BAC.N)
"M&A markets are fragile. There was a slight loss of momentum in the second quarter. Coming off year-end (2009) into Q1, momentum was good. There was strong strategic activity and active P/E bidding, much of which slowed down in the second quarter. EMEA has seen the biggest slowdown."
"Overall, we see it as flattish for the year -- hoping for moderately better. But the first half was flat and momentum lacking. Our hope would be that stabilizing credit and equity markets will create activity in Q3 and Q4. The longer it takes to achieve stability, the more likely the deal environment will be postponed."
JOHN FINLEY, CO-HEAD OF THE M&A GROUP AND HEAD OF GLOBAL M+A AT SIMPSON THACHER & BARTLETT
"What we're seeing is that Asia and South America are an increasingly significant portion of our M&A practice. As the markets get bigger in those areas, inevitably there's going to be more M&A volume. This trend has been strengthened by the difficult markets that North America and Europe are experiencing. Places like Brazil and China have not been affected by the financial crisis in the same way as the U.S. or Europe."
GARY POSTERNACK, HEAD OF M+A FOR THE AMERICAS AT BARCLAYS CAPITAL (BARC.L)
"Over the first six months of this year, activity is essentially flat to last year. However, last year's volumes were inflated by a number of large government financial interventions."
"If you back out that unusual activity, we are currently on a run-rate of about 10 percent higher than last year, and we are expecting a similar improvement on a run-rate basis for the remainder of the year."
HERNAN CRISTERNA, HEAD OF M+A FOR EMEA, JPMORGAN (JPM.N)
"There are two trends ahead. Our clients are thinking, can we go outside our core markets to find higher growth, or can we find bargains -- undervalued assets in mature markets."
"The amount available to finance private equity deals continues to increase. Depending on the characteristics of the company and the sector in which it operates, debt financing of 3 to 5 billion euros for a below-investment-grade deal can be raised."
STEVE KROUSKOS, AMERICAS MARKETS LEADER FOR ERNST + YOUNG'S TRANSACTION ADVISORY SERVICES
"I'm cautiously optimistic. Throughout June we've seen activity pick up, and I think we'll continue to see it pick up."
"For the year, I'd say M&A will be up -- moderately up. I think that, obviously, anything that could rock the economy could change that forecast, but overall I think M&A will be up" compared with 2009.
"Overall, M&A activity is picking up. The pipeline is building. It can take six to 12 or 18 months to get a deal done."
BOB KENNEDY, PARTNER WITH LAW FIRM JONES DAY IN NEW YORK
"In the U.S., there is momentum and a lot of traction. It's not off the charts -- it's a slow creeping up of activity ... the European debt crisis has impacted most of the world, but it hasn't impacted the U.S. yet much."
(Compiled by Michael Erman; reporting by Paritosh Bansal in New York, Jessica Hall in Philadelphia, Victoria Howley and Quentin Webb in London)
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