Analysis: Kyrgyz seek democracy, Moscow sees extremist threat

ALMATY/MOSCOW (Reuters) - Kyrgyz voters who backed the creation of a parliamentary democracy, the first in a region run by authoritarian leaders, have been warned their dreams may end in factionalism or a power grab by Islamist extremists.

The warning about the dangers to Kyrgyz democracy came from Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, whose country sees Central Asia as part of its sphere of influence -- but some analysts say a dose of democracy is just what Central Asia needs.

Acting President Roza Otunbayeva got the result she wanted -- 90 percent of voters supported her plan for constitutional change -- but now faces the twin challenges of building support abroad while subduing fierce ethnic rivalries at home.

"Kyrgyzstan has a few more minefields to negotiate before the end of the year, any one of which could blow up," said Almaty-based political analyst Dosym Satpayev.

Otunbayeva, a former diplomat, came to power after an April revolt overthrew president Kurmanbek Bakiyev.

Her time as interim leader has been fraught with political and ethnic tension, culminating two weeks ago in an outbreak of violence between ethnic Kyrgyz and Uzbeks in the volatile south that killed nearly 300 people, probably hundreds more. Parts of Kyrgyzstan's second city, Osh, are in ruins.

Otunbayeva argues that parliamentary democracy will rid Kyrgyzstan of the political and clan rivalries that have dogged the nation since it gained independence in the break-up of the Soviet Union. It has since then experienced two revolutions.

Her plan, including parliamentary elections in October 2010 and every five years thereafter, has met a lukewarm response.

The U.S. State Department said cautiously: "We hope that this is an effective step toward stable, democratic governance."

But Medvedev warned that it could be a step in the opposite direction, leading to a system where rival political groups jostle for power, paralyzing decision-making.

"In its current state, there are a host of scenarios for Kyrgyzstan, including the most unpleasant scenario -- going up to the collapse of the state," Medvedev said.

Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the journal 'Russia in Global Affairs', said Medvedev's view that democracy may not work in Kyrgyzstan was common in Russia: "Many fear ... it will turn into an endless war of groups and clans, which will paralyze the decision-making process."

Should that happen, he said, Kyrgyzstan's parliament could recreate the stalemates in Ukraine when former president Viktor Yushchenko and ex-prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko locked horns.

But Kyrgyzstan, which shares the ethnic and religious tinderbox of the Ferghana Valley with neighbors Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, has some volatile ingredients absent from Ukraine.

EXTREMIST THREAT

Western powers fear that groups with ties to the Taliban or al Qaeda may try to expand their reach in a region that is close to Afghanistan and whose people are mainly Muslim.

Militant Islamist movements have largely been kept in check by authoritarian rulers in Central Asia. This year alone, Tajikistan has jailed more than 75 people it says had links to banned extremist groups.

Security analysts say any attempt to impose Islamic rule would likely fail since authorities were on high alert. But Kyrgyz security chief Keneshbek Dushebayev has described his country as a weak link in the struggle against terrorism.

"The Kyrgyz leadership needs real assistance and that means financial, as well as political, support," said Satpayev.

"Most people realize that this referendum is not a panacea. Building a parliamentary republic will take far more time and could lead to more serious consequences than are apparent now."

Some say a break from the tradition of strongman leaders, which goes back to the Soviet era and beyond, may be needed not only in Kyrgyzstan but also in other ex-Soviet states.

"Russia should also think of a constitutional reform," said Gennady Gudkov, deputy head of the Security Committee in the State Duma, Russia's lower parliament house. "Otherwise, no matter what we are trying to build here, we will get the Soviet Union again and again."

Analysts say the Kremlin is more likely frustrated at the creation of a political system in its own backyard that could make it more difficult for Moscow to dominate a country that plays host to both Russian and U.S. military air bases.

Kyrgyzstan's elections are also likely to warrant close inspection elsewhere in Central Asia, not least in Uzbekistan, where President Islam Karimov tolerates no dissent after ruling the region's most populous nation for two decades.

"It will be a very interesting experiment," said Satpayev. "If the Kyrgyz can pull it off, it could become a model for the rest of Central Asia."

(Additional reporting by Olga Orininskaya in Almaty and Steve Gutterman in Moscow, editing by Tim Pearce)