Analysis: Iran bombs send rebels' message of survival

A survivor of the bomb blasts sits at a corridor of a hospital in Zahedan, 1076 km (668 miles) southeast of Tehran July 16, 2010.

LONDON (Reuters) - An Iranian rebel group has sent Tehran a defiant message of survival after the execution of its leader, carrying out a deadly double bombing that is likely to deepen strains in a region already unsettled by the Afghan war.

Although small, the ethnic Baluch insurgent group Jundollah draws international attention as it is active on the borders between Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan, a destabilized region of sectarian tensions, banditry and drug trafficking that poses security risks for all three neighbors.

The group is also periodically a factor in Iran's stormy ties to the United States, most recently strained by the mystery of an Iranian nuclear scientist who reappeared in Iran saying he had been kidnapped by the CIA, a charge Washington dismissed.

Iranian officials have often said Jundollah is a tool of U.S. intelligence -- another accusation denied by Washington -- in an apparent attempt to show to a domestic audience that Washington has sought to destabilize the government.

Jundollah claimed responsibility for two suicide attacks that killed at least 28 people including several Revolutionary Guards on Thursday, said they were retaliation for Iran's execution of its leader Abdolmalek Rigi.

In an email to Al Arabiya television, the group warned of more attacks to come.

Analysts said the strike at a Shi'ite Muslim mosque was evidence the group retained an ability to strike in its home southeast region despite the loss of Rigi, seen by some as a hands-on leader with a prominent role in planning past attacks.

The attack was also in line with an increasingly frequent use by the group of the suicide tactics associated with hardline Islamist groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the analysts said.

Opposition secular activist Mehrdad Khonsari said Rigi's death appeared to have "lifted any restraint on what's left of Jundollah from showing it can reassemble itself and re-engage."

"They are very bitter."

DRUG SMUGGLING

The strike was "almost inevitable" after Rigi's execution, said Henry Wilkinson of the Janusian Security advisory group.

"Most of the indications are that Jundollah remains a relatively small group, but one that has evolved as a threat."

Jundollah has said it is fighting for the rights of Iran's Sunni Muslim minority, and the Baluch ethnic minority, but has denied harboring any separatist or radical sectarian agenda.

Iran rejects allegations by rights groups that it discriminates against ethnic and religious minorities.

Iran says the group has links to Sunni Islamist al Qaeda, and accuses Pakistan, Britain and the United States of backing Jundollah to create instability in southeast Iran, where many Sunni minority live. The three countries deny the claim.

However some analysts say there are signs that group has evolved through shifting links with various parties, including the Taliban, drug smuggling networks and Pakistani intelligence, each of whom saw the group as a tool for their own ends.

Wilkinson said that despite what he called Jundollah's ethno-nationalist orientation, over the past year there had been signs that it had assimilated "practices from jihadist and sectarian elements in the Iran-Afghanistan-Pakistan region."

This shift correlated with an increase in Jundollah's violent activity, he said, citing attacks in 2008 and 2009.

But Wilkinson said he suspected its adoption of suicide tactics and ideals was driven largely by pragmatism.

"Like many terrorist groups, Jundollah needs to innovate to remain viable, visible and relevant," he said.

Analysts say the group's future survival was likely to rest on several longstanding pillars of support.

POVERTY, DEPRIVATION

These were revenue from drug smuggling, support from some Baluchs in southeastern Sistan-Baluchistan province as well as from some Baluch businessmen elsewhere in Iran, and an apparent ability to continue to obtain safe haven in Pakistan.

Sajjan Gohel of the Asia Pacific Foundation think tank said the group's resources "were not confined to one place" as its members appeared able to operate across the Pakistan border.

Iranian authorities seemed to have assumed that the group was the creature of Rigi's family, Gohel said, but it evidently enjoyed wider support, and his execution had not affected the group's desire to attack the government in any way.

"I think they will survive," he said, adding longstanding poverty and socio-economic deprivation would continue to fuel resentment of Tehran among local people in Sistan-Baluchistan that Jundollah would be able to exploit for recruitment.

(Reporting by William Maclean, Editing by Jon Hemming)