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BP hopes to keep blown well capped
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1 of 21. The new containment capping stack is seen in this image captured from a BP live video feed in the Gulf of Mexico, July 17, 2010.
Credit: Reuters/BP/Handout
HOUSTON |
HOUSTON (Reuters) - BP Plc said on Sunday its new cap has stopped the oil that has gushed into the Gulf of Mexico for three months and hopes to keep it that way until a relief well can permanently seal the leak next month.
The British energy giant expressed confidence its blown-out Macondo well is intact below the seabed and it would not need to resume a collection system that has been used to siphon oil from the undersea gusher to ships on the surface.
But the official in charge of the U.S. government's spill response reacted cautiously, saying pressure readings needed to be analyzed and tests of the well's structural integrity that began on Thursday may be extended only in 24-hour increments.
"As a condition of the extension, the U.S. government has required significant new monitoring and periodic evaluation and approval by our science team," retired Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen, who has the final word on BP's next course of action, said in a statement.
The worst oil spill in U.S. history has caused an economic and environmental disaster in five states along the Gulf Coast, hurt President Barack Obama's approval ratings and complicated traditionally close ties with Britain.
Those concerns are sure to be discussed when British Prime Minister David Cameron meets Obama in Washington on Tuesday.
The plan had been for BP to resume siphoning the oil after the completion of the pressure tests on the well, which extends 2.5 miles under the seabed, to judge if it is able to withstand the process to seal the leak.
But Doug Suttles, BP's chief operating officer, said the company now hopes to keep the damaged well shut until the relief well is completed in August and the leak is sealed off with heavy drilling mud and cement.
"We're hopeful that if the encouraging signs continue that we'll be able to continue the integrity test all the way to the point that we get the well killed," he told reporters before Allen issued his statement. "Clearly we don't want to reanimate flow into the Gulf if we don't have to."
PERMANENT FIX
When BP choked off the flow a mile under the water's surface with a new, tighter cap on Thursday, it was the first time oil has not spewed since an April 20 explosion on an offshore rig killed 11 workers and triggered the disaster.
"While we are pleased that no oil is currently being released into the Gulf of Mexico and want to take all appropriate action to keep it that way, it is important that all decisions are driven by the science," Allen said.
"Ultimately, we must insure no irreversible damage is done which could cause uncontrolled leakage from numerous points on the sea floor."
Billy Nungesser, president of Plaquemines Parish in Louisiana, said the new cap was good news after a three-month losing battle to try to clean up oil hitting fragile marshlands as more lapped ashore.
"We're very optimistic," Nungesser told the "Fox News Sunday" program. "We see light at the end of the tunnel. It's a very long tunnel but today we're making progress."
In Boothville, Louisiana, where a sign on a roadside snack stand said "Thank you, Jesus, the well is capped," residents were happy about the latest news but frustrated at the economic toll the spill is taking.
Shrimper Marvin Davis said he has received only two emergency payments of $2,500 each from BP but has been told to submit more paperwork to keep the money coming.
"I feel we're going to be shut down a long time -- in our best area," he said.
Obama -- under fire to push BP to plug the leak and clean up a spill that has fouled beaches and ravaged fishing, tourism and drilling industries -- welcomed the success of the new cap but said there was much work ahead on a permanent solution.
NEW RULES?
Beyond monitoring the meeting between Cameron and Obama, BP and its lobbyists are keeping a close eye on the U.S. Congress amid debate on an energy bill that could include reforms meant to prevent a repeat of Gulf of Mexico spill.
Lawmakers are considering a range of new rules that could require tougher safety regulations on offshore drilling or bar companies like BP from new offshore exploration leases.
The crisis took on a new twist over the weekend as the British government said there was no evidence of a connection between BP and last year's release of a Libyan man convicted of the 1988 airline bombing over Lockerbie, Scotland, that killed 270 people, most of them Americans.
The U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee has scheduled a July 29 hearing on possible ties between BP and the release of Abdel Basset al-Megrahi, a Libyan intelligence officer who was the only person convicted of the bombing of Pan Am Flight 103.
BP has said it lobbied the British government about slow progress in resolving a different prisoner transfer agreement with Libya in 2007 but was not involved in Megrahi's release.
(Additional reporting by Paul Eckert in Washington, Eileen O'Grady in Houston, Alexandria Sage in Louisiana; Writing by Deborah Charles; Editing by John O'Callaghan)
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I think if they connect to the single choke line to two ships, they can produce maybe 20,000 bpd by opening it but it will still have internal pressures of maybe 3,000 + psi (slightly more than the psi of the 2,400 psi sea bed).
The 6,745 psi inside it now, with it completely closed tells us that any leak that might be present is rather high up in the casing. An example to explain this is suppose there is a usual psi of 460 psi for every thousand feet of depth from sea level to the 18,000 ft bottom of the casing. Then by grade school math, 18 x 460 would have a bottom hole pressure of 8,280 psi.
However the 7th grade question is at what depth will the 6,745 psi now inside the casing be stronger in terms of depth than the rock fluid pressure at that depth.
Of course at 6,745/460 it is 14,663 feet from the surface of the sea to where the pressures are equal.
The teacher then asks how far below the 5,000 foot deep seabed into the casing is this present pressure of 6,745 psi less than the rock psi fluid pressure outside the casing… so any possible leak could only happen to the formation above that depth level?
The answer is of course 14,663 where psi is equal – 5,000 from sea level to the seabed and well head. This 9,663 feet is from the wellhead down to equal pressure. This also means that from 9,663 feet on further down the casing to 18,000 feet below can not possibly have any leak. This is contrary to what you read about stupid reports that they were worried about deeper leaks. It is not possible as the pressure is only 6,745 psi and less than the pressure outside the pipe. Most grade school kids know that pressure flows from high to low.
A leak down near the relief well’s bit could not happen as the psi of fluid in rock has a pressure there much greater than 6,745 psi and flow is from high psi to low.
Immediately, this tells us that shutting down the relief well would be a stupid thing to do, as it only gets close very very much much deeper than 14,663 feet from sea level where the pressure is the same. Close point between the two wells and the relief well is filled with heavy mud which also would have much greater pressure in the relief well than the formation or inside the casing of the disaster well.
This engineering mistake can be overlooked by our grade school class, as the engineers might not have asked their class at what dept is it possible to cause a problem, or where could 6,745 psi could be higher than outside the pipe depth. We already calculated that and engineers should know.
But the class had already been told the mud pressure of the relief well would be vastly greater than the 6,745 psi at the drill bit depth, and all those math students knew there was NO possibility of a deep leak from the disaster well casing bothering the continued relief well drilling. Every one of those kids knows pressure flows from high to low. If they asked the class, this longer plugging time would caused by shutting down the relief well would not be facing us now. Kids are smart. Engineers can make mistakes.
Now if there was a leak in the upper 9,663 feet of the casing there possibly could be a pressure drop, because the pressure outside the pipe is less than the 6,745 psi… but any leak there would be like fracking any oil well and likely would break very very rapidly close to the top of the casing. A leak maybe 8000 feet below the casing top of the seabed could just slowly bleed off, but a dangerous type break near the sea bed well head would be like a sudden fracturing to a much lower pressure than what is inside the pipe. The internal pressure in this well still builds at a logarithmic slowing rate toward an asymptote at the reservoir pressure. The expected leveling off without fracture is exactly like the curve now being recorded.
The likelihood of a dangerous type break within thousands of feet from the wellhead is extremely unlikely given the data already known.
Obviously, the situation going on is there is no leak and only the reservoir depletion is the reason responsible that the capping pressure very quickly rose past 6,000 psi and then tapered to exactly followed the calculated curve toward the now depleted present reservoir pressure. This must be due to depletion of open flow for months causing the lower reservoir pressure… unless the lower well is partially sealed off below 18,000 feet, which is also is no dangerous problem.
There is nothing much beyond high school math to be considered here to know for sure that there is no leak and that opening it again would be stupid. They should wait until the mud pumping into the well that is used to kill it will require some opening. The relief well will pump first mud, and then cement to fill the casing of the blowout well. Only then should the cap ever be opened to let the mud and cement flow into the blowout well casing.
To produce the well now like they propose is crazy. Just leave this daemon alone until they have to bleed off some casing pressure as the plugging operation starts.
I have been posting and sending BP email begging them to use 1.) parts that fit and 2.) standard compression methods to repair and hold the leak sealed for months. It took them this very very long time to actually do what should have been ready to use at a moment’s notice.
Suppose BOEMRE (our government regulatory agency) followed the emails I sent them, and only allowed deep sea BOPs that had a wider top flange with threaded bolt holes at the top. This is just a wide flat extension size of the top edge part of a BOP. The big top with threaded bolt holes near its outer edge is used in case of a problem like this; to bolt a lowered cap with downward pointed bolts into; that robots use to tighten those bolts in much less than a single day. Then whenever such a disaster (due to BOP internal failure) like this happens we are looking at hours not months for a fix.
Then with the cap (required by law as I suggested to BOEMRE to be on standby) to enclose the leak sitting there… ready to be used quickly… this type blow out would be a matter of hours or days instead of months.
There would then be no oil to clean up requiring many months and possibly years.
Will they do this?
Probably not, as the wheels of government move so slow you see nothing. But hopefully they will eventually turn.
Perhaps BP and the coastguard erred on the side of caution by first installing a loose fitting cap?
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