PREVIEW-Asian chipmakers Q2 seen strong, H2 growth to weaken
* What: Hynix, Samsung, Toshiba and Elpida Q2 earnings
* When: From Thursday, July 22
* Chip price growth leveling off, possible oversupply from Q4
* Smartphone, tablet PCs to drive growth in H2
By Miyoung Kim
SEOUL, July 19 (Reuters) - The robust sales momentum in Asian chipmakers is likely to extend at least into the current quarter, but Europe's troubled economies could affect demand and crimp profits from the fourth quarter.
Samsung Electronics Co (005930.KS), Hynix Semiconductor Inc (000660.KS) and Toshiba Corp (6502.T) are enjoying strong profit growth as the global DRAM and NAND-type flash memory market is estimated to grow around 60 percent to $60 billion this year on revived consumer and corporate spending worldwide.
However, a strong rally in prices of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) chips since last year is forcing PC makers to slash per-system memory content, while rising supply growth and a potential demand slowdown from Europe could hit prices further.
"Q3 is normally strong demand season but it's uncertain whether things will actually improve sharply from Q2," said Jong-wook Ban, an analyst at Daishin Securities.
"A potential tightening in China could also force buyers to turn more cautious, while a weak euro will hit profitability (of Asian chipmakers)."
DRAM prices have already started weakening and brokerage CLSA estimates Samsung's average selling prices of DRAM, mostly used in computers and servers, to drop 10 percent in the third quarter and 20 percent in the fourth quarter. Explosive growth is however forecast in NAND flash memory chips, used in mobile phones and digital cameras.
Last week, Intel (INTC.O), the world's top chipmaker, set
an upbeat tone for the industry earnings and brushed off
concerns of consumption slowdown in Europe with
forecast-beating results and strong sales outlook.
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"Intel's view is from suppliers' perspective, which is
rather more upbeat," Harrison Park, mobile communications PC
business team leader at LG Electronics (066570.KS), said on
Monday.
"Europe is now a factor that is slowing down overall PC demand growth and the market is in a correction period, although things could improve again from late this quarter on strong seasonal demand as we approach back to school season."
RECORD RESULTS
Both Samsung and Hynix of South Korea, the world's No.1 and No.2 memory chipmaker respectively, are set to report strong second-quarter profits from chip sales and improve earnings further in the current quarter.
Samsung, which flagged a forecast-beating record quarterly profit this month, is expected to post 2.7 trillion won in operating profit from chip sales, making up more than half of the firm's entire profit estimated at 5.0 trillion won. [ID:nTOE65K05V]
The result from the semiconductor business would mark a 40 percent increase from the first quarter and nearly eight-fold rise from a year ago. Margins were also seen rising sharply to 33 percent from 5.5 percent a year ago.
The sector's supply growth will accelerate in the second half as second-tier firms overcome technical glitches involving transition into a finer chip production process, which have limited supply growth in the current uptrend so far.
NAND spot prices rebounded this month following Apple's
(AAPL.O) upbeat sales of iPhone and iPad, which use Samsung and
Toshiba's NAND chip supply growth and cause spot supply tight,
according to BofA Merill Lynch.
Samsung shares have lost 5.5 percent over the past three months, while Hynix fell 15 percent, versus a flat KOSPI .KS11. Toshiba shares declined 12 percent and Elpida shed 35 percent against a 15 percent rise in the Nikkei .N225. COMPANY APRIL-JUNE YEAR AGO (LOSS) JAN-MARCH DATE Samsung 2.7 trln won 0.34 trln won 1.96 trln won July 30 Hynix 1.0 trln won (211 bln won) 799 bln won July 22 *Toshiba 29.6 bln yen (37.6 bln yen) 104.3 bln yen July 29 Elpida 37.6 bln yen (42.3 bln yen) 37.8 bln yen July 29 Note: Estimates are based on data from Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. * Figures are operating profit/loss and numbers for Toshiba are for the entire company, not just for the chips business. (Additional reporting by Sachi Izumi in TOKYO; Editing by Anshuman Daga)
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