Analysis: Old foes Chavez, Uribe in final showdown

CARACAS (Reuters) - Latin America's most fractious relationship is going out with a bang and the fallout from the latest showdown between Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Colombia's outgoing Alvaro Uribe may leave a lasting mark on regional ties.

After eight years of bickering with socialist Chavez, U.S.-ally Uribe ends his second term on August 7, leaving a bilateral legacy of broken diplomacy, shattered trade and a conflict over alleged Colombian guerrilla camps in Venezuela that will hang over Latin America for years.

Chavez severed his OPEC nation's relations with Colombia on Thursday after Bogota's envoy to the Organization of American States made an impassioned attack on Venezuela for allegedly harboring 1,500 Colombian leftist rebels.

Chavez, a fierce critic of Washington, said the Colombian charge was a pretext for a possible U.S.-backed invasion of Venezuela. "I blame Uribe, sick with hatred, he's headed straight to the garbage heap of history," he said.

"He is a pawn of the Yankee empire, he ended up isolated in this continent, he didn't defeat the guerrillas or drug trafficking and Venezuela is a victim of all this."

Former soldier Chavez has always denied backing the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, rebels despite Colombia's insistence its intelligence shows clear links.

But he shares a leftist ideology with the former peasant army now funded by cocaine and kidnapping. He says he cannot take sides in Colombia's decades-long civil war and that he cannot be expected to repeatedly put his soldiers' lives at risk fighting Bogota's enemies who spill into his territory.

Next month, Uribe hands the presidency to former Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos, a conservative soul mate who nevertheless wants to improve ties with Venezuela to recuperate billions of dollars of lost bilateral trade.

It is feasible relations can be quickly re-established when Santos takes office, because both countries' economies have suffered from the loss of most of the $7 billion annual trade.

But Uribe's parting volley -- his envoy Luis Alfonso Hoyos displayed photos and maps of supposed FARC guerrilla camps in Venezuela at the OAS permanent council while angrily demanding an international commission check on the alleged sites -- was designed to pile international pressure on Chavez.

"Even though Santos may open a new chapter in relations, hunting down the FARC on Venezuelan territory is going to be an issue pursued by the Colombians now as a strategic priority," said Robert Munks, Americas editor for Jane's Country Risk.

CRIMINAL COURT

Uribe has long threatened to take Chavez to the International Criminal Court in The Hague for supporting "terrorism" and he is now making moves in that direction.

On Thursday, Colombia's attorney general said he was investigating cross-border rebel attacks and could take Venezuelan officials to the International Criminal Court for helping the rebels.

"Uribe must first attempt to call Chavez to account using all legal avenues short of The Hague, including the OAS," said Venezuelan analysts at Global Source Partners in a note.

"These objectives explain the detail with which Hoyos ... presented evidence against Chavez and listed the international treaties violated by the Venezuelan government."

Chavez, the heir apparent to Fidel Castro's mantle of chief U.S. headache in Latin America, and Uribe, a conservative free-marketeer who embraces military aid from Washington, were never going to be comfortable neighbors.

Remarkably, they managed to overlook differences for several years after Uribe took office in 2002 and build closer trade and energy ties -- mainly Colombian farms and factories exporting consumer goods to Venezuela.

Everything changed with Colombia's March 2008 bombing raid on a guerrilla camp in Ecuador, which killed a top FARC commander and more than 20 others.

Ecuador severed ties with Bogota after the raid and Chavez ordered tanks to Venezuela's border with Colombia. South American countries almost unanimously condemned the attack.

Last year, relations took another dive over a Colombian deal to allow U.S. soldiers access to more of its military bases to fight drugs and rebels. Chavez ordered a trade freeze.

Now, Bogota, despite having what it says is firm evidence of a prolonged guerrilla presence in Venezuela, has chosen noisy diplomacy over military action -- a sign Colombia may be wary of an armed response from Chavez to any attack.

But Uribe also hopes to isolate Chavez by convincing other South American governments that Venezuela supports "terrorism" and presents a regional threat.

A meeting of the regional Unasur diplomatic bloc in the next few days will likely be a first test of the success of that strategy. Colombia can count on the support of Chile and Peru's conservative governments, but the region is still dominated by leaders whose affinities lie closer to Chavez.

"An international game played by both Venezuelan and Colombian allies has commenced. Venezuela's friends, chiefly Brazil and the Dominican Republic, will probably work to restore normalcy in due course," said Global Source Partners.

(Editing by Pascal Fletcher and Mohammad Zargham)