Scenarios: What could happen with Arizona's immigration law

WASHINGTON/PHOENIX (Reuters) - The Obama administration is seeking a preliminary injunction to block Arizona's controversial new immigration law, which is set to take effect on Thursday.

U.S. District Judge Susan Bolton heard oral arguments from the federal government as well as the state of Arizona last week, but adjourned without giving any indication of when or how she might rule.

Meanwhile, Hispanic and labor activists opposed to the law have said they will carry on with a campaign of street protests and civil disobedience regardless.

Here are some scenarios for what could happen.

FEDERAL COURT COULD GRANT AN INJUNCTION

The Obama administration has argued that immigration matters are handled on a federal level and that the Arizona law is pre-empted under the U.S. Constitution and federal law. The administration has requested a preliminary injunction blocking the law, arguing that the statute would cause irreparable harm if it goes into effect.

Bolton could grant a preliminary injunction request if she finds that ultimately the Obama administration would succeed on the merits in its quest to nullify the state law.

If she grants the injunction, Arizona state and local authorities would be prevented from enforcing the law. The state could appeal, which would be considered by the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.

COURT COULD REJECT PRELIMINARY INJUNCTION

Bolton could decide the Obama administration failed to make an adequate argument that the law would cause irreparable harm, and deny the preliminary injunction. That would allow the law to take effect this week.

Bolton would then issue a schedule for legal briefs to be submitted and oral arguments to be held on the merits of whether the Arizona law violates the U.S. Constitution.

The Obama administration also could ask the federal appeals court to consider an emergency request to prevent the law from going into effect.

U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder said earlier this month that if the law did take effect, the Justice Department could look to see what impact it was having, such as whether any racial profiling had been carried out in violation of the law.

PARTIAL INJUNCTION COULD BE GRANTED

Bolton could decide the Obama administration's challenge would not necessarily win on every element of the Arizona law and grant a partial injunction preventing only certain sections of the law from going into effect.

One legal scholar, Gabriel "Jack" Chin, a law professor at the University of Arizona, said Bolton may let areas of the law that require police to investigate a person's immigration status stand, while placing a stay on sections that create new state crimes such as not carrying federal immigration documents, or transporting illegal immigrants.

"It seems that she is not too interested in enjoining the parts of the law that require investigation and information sharing when a person has been lawfully stopped, detained and arrested. ... The court seemed to say that that wasn't going to be a problem as that doesn't really impose duties on the federal government," Chin said.

The parts of the law that might get enjoined are the ones making new Arizona crimes of "not carrying your federal immigration documentation if you are undocumented ... of not registering under federal law if you are undocumented" and transporting, concealing, harboring and shielding undocumented citizens, Chin said, adding that "some or all of those might get enjoined."

CONGRESSIONAL ACTION

Obama and Republicans in Congress have both said the Arizona law should prompt the U.S. Congress to adopt comprehensive immigration reform. They differ vastly on how to do so. The legislative calendar is short before November's U.S. congressional elections.

Republicans have demanded more effort to secure the border and have said the initial deployment of National Guard troops to the border was inadequate. Many Republicans also oppose giving the nearly 11 million illegal immigrants believed to be in the United States amnesty to remain in the country.

Obama supports allowing illegal immigrants in good standing to pay a fine, learn English and get on the track to citizenship. He also has supported tightening border security and clamping down on employers that hire illegal immigrants as workers.

STATE LEGISLATURE

If the federal court puts the Arizona law on hold, the state legislature could try to alter it in order to address concerns about its constitutionality.

In that case, it would depend on how broadly Bolton rules. If she finds that Arizona cannot pass laws regulating immigration, there would be little state lawmakers could do.

If some of the law can be salvaged, Arizona Governor Jan Brewer, a Republican, could call a special session of the legislature.

State lawmakers already have amended the immigration law once to try to prevent racial profiling. Under the changes, police will be required to investigate the immigration status of those they reasonably suspect are in the country illegally, only in the case of lawful contact such as a traffic stop.

STREET PROTESTS

Police arrested seven Hispanic activists blocking traffic in protest over the law outside the U.S. District Court in Phoenix last Thursday, as lawyers argued for and against a stay of the law inside.

The National Day Laborer Organizing Network and activist group Puente said they will push ahead with similar acts of civil disobedience this Thursday regardless of how Bolton rules.

(Editing by Will Dunham)