Snap Analysis: GDP data a grab bag of good and bad
WASHINGTON |
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Friday's U.S. gross domestic product data showed a feast-or-famine recovery, with business spending picking up while consumers remained cautious.
Final sales to domestic buyers, a closely watched measure of demand, jumped at a 4.1 percent annual rate in the second quarter, well above the first quarter's revised 1.3 percent rate. Yet much of that demand was filled by imports, which offers no jolt to the faltering U.S. economy.
Here is a look at the hits and misses.
THE FIRST NUMBER
* The headline numbers showed the first-quarter growth rate was much faster than earlier reports indicated. GDP was revised up to a 3.7 percent rate from 2.7 percent.
* But the second-quarter rate of 2.4 percent was a touch slower than the 2.5 percent that economists polled by Reuters had expected. Many economists had raised their forecasts in recent days, so the disappointment may be even bigger than the numbers imply.
THE NUTS AND BOLTS
* Inventories accounted for more than two-thirds of first-quarter growth, which could be a sign that companies are building stocks faster than consumers are willing to buy them. That could be a drag on future growth, and may help explain recent reports of sluggish factory activity.
* Inventories added just over 1 percentage point to first-quarter GDP, a smaller proportion but still accounting for nearly half of growth.
* The biggest drag was imports, which subtracted 4 percentage points off of second-quarter growth. Under the accounting rules used to calculate GDP, imports count as a negative because this report measures domestic production.
* Business investment spending surged at a 17 percent rate in the second quarter, with equipment and software growing at a 21.9 percent clip, the biggest jump in almost 13 years. This suggests growing confidence among businesses, but it clashes with the still-cautious consumer and raises the question of whether the confidence is misplaced.
(Editing by James Dalgleish)
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