Scenarios: Paraguay president's cancer battle

ASUNCION (Reuters) - Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo has lymphatic cancer and his medical team says while the disease is more advanced than first thought, there is a good chance it can be cured with chemotherapy.

However, the treatment could require Lugo to scale back his duties, which could mean less effective government and could weaken him politically.

The former Roman Catholic bishop took office in 2008 as president of the poor South American nation. His popularity sank after he admitted he fathered a child while a bishop, and amid further paternity scandals.

Lugo, 59, has a thorny relationship with Vice President Federico Franco, who would be in charge if he were absent, and also with the opposition-controlled Congress. If Lugo's condition deteriorates, he might have to hand over to Franco before his mandate ends in 2013.

Following are possible scenarios of how Lugo's disease could affect the Paraguayan government:

LUGO HEALTHY ENOUGH TO FINISH MANDATE

Lugo is due to travel to Sao Paulo on Tuesday, where he will be advised on the best course of treatment. Experts say Lugo's disease is treatable with chemotherapy and he will initially need six sessions over 18 weeks, which should not prevent him from running the soy and beef producing country.

If the non-Hodgkin's lymphoma Lugo has is not resistant to chemotherapy, he should be healthy again in a few months.

Lugo may have no choice but to soften his leftist stance in order to mend ties with Franco and the opposition-controlled Congress if his opponents seek to take political advantage from his illness. Lugo and Franco are ideologically at odds, and formed an alliance to run for office. Since winning, they have clashed publicly over Lugo's leftist policies.

However, some analysts say the cancer could lift Lugo's popularity and make his critics ease up on him. He has been under pressure to crack down on murders and kidnappings blamed on a small armed group in northern Paraguay.

LUGO NEEDS FURTHER TREATMENT, TEMPORARILY ABSENT

The type of cancer Lugo is suffering from may be resistant to chemotherapy and require more aggressive treatment. His decision to travel to Brazil for further tests could be a signal he would opt for treatment abroad if his health worsens, meaning longer absences from the helm.

If chemotherapy affects his ability to do his job, he could decide to cede power to Franco temporarily. The vice president has said he would not take advantage of Lugo's disease to try to take over the presidency, but he could potentially reassess if Lugo's health deteriorates badly.

A power struggle could put at risk a decade of political stability that followed a volatile period after the end of Alfredo Stroessner's dictatorship in 1989.

LUGO STEPS DOWN, PARAGUAY TURNS RIGHT

Lugo could have to step down if his health deteriorates badly, in which case Franco would by law automatically become president to complete his term and there would be an election to choose a new vice president.

As president, Franco could reshuffle the cabinet and appoint politicians from the conservative Liberal Party to key ministries, which would undermine the power of those close to Lugo.

(Additional reporting by Mariel Cristaldo; writing by Eduardo Garcia; editing by Simon Gardner and Anthony Boadle)