Are the Iraqi security forces ready or not?

An Iraqi soldier mans a machine gun atop an armoured vehicle to secure a street in Baghdad's Adhamiya district, August 1, 2010.

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - With Washington determined to stick to its timetable for a pullout, an Iraqi general has called into question whether his troops are ready to defend Iraq against a stubborn insurgency and external threats.

U.S. military leaders, engaged in a massive troop withdrawal that will see American forces reduced to 50,000 by month's end from about 150,000 at their peak, say Iraq's army and police are up to the challenge of militant attacks.

Under the security pact between Baghdad and Washington, all U.S. troops are scheduled to leave by the end of next year.

But Lieutenant General Babakir Zebari, Iraq's senior military officer, told Agence France Presse at a defense conference in Baghdad on Wednesday the Iraqi army would not be ready to ensure security until 2020.

"At this point, the withdrawal is going well, because they are still here," Zebari was quoted as saying.

"But the problem will start after 2011 -- the politicians must find other ways to fill the void after 2011.

"If I were asked about the withdrawal, I would say to politicians: the U.S. army must stay until the Iraqi army is fully ready in 2020."

Washington plans to leave 50,000 troops in Iraq to support and train Iraqi forces, which now number about 440,000 police and 220,000 soldiers. But Iraq has only a bare-bones air force and navy, and U.S. officials concede that strengthening its ability to defend its borders is a work in progress.

"WORK TO BE DONE"

"The Iraqi Security Forces are in the lead for internal security and fully capable of providing internal security," U.S. General Steve Lanza said in response to Zebari's comments.

"Iraq is rapidly building conventional capabilities to defend against external threats every day and there is much work to be done before the end of the current mission of U.S. Forces in December 2011," he said.

Violence has fallen sharply since the height of sectarian violence in 2006-07 but Iraq still sees an average of 15 militant attacks a day, according to U.S. figures. American soldiers will train and support the Iraqis, provide air support and logistics help, and work as "partners" in counter-terrorism operations, Lieutenant General Robert Cone, a top U.S. commander, said this week.

"It is very unlikely that the Iraqi security forces will ask for assistance in the form of combat soldiers ... because there's 660,000 Iraqis in uniform today defending this country," Cone said, adding that the Iraqis are doing "exactly the right things" against militant attacks.

But Iraqi military analyst Adil al-Azawi estimated the army's readiness for internal threats at about 60 to 70 percent and said it was not close to being prepared to defend borders.

"The statement of Lieutenant General Babakir Zebari is professional and has a high degree of credibility," said Azawi, a former army colonel. "The Iraqi army does not have even 20 percent of the arms of the armies of neighboring countries."

Top military officials have said full modernization of a force rebuilt from the ground up following the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that ousted Saddam Hussein will take another ten years.

For example, Iraq has ordered 140 Abrams tanks but got its first shipment of 11 just recently.

Iraqi government spokesman Ali a-Dabbagh told al-Arabiya TV that Zebari's comments were a personal view and said government policy dictated no U.S. soldier would remain after 2011.

"Politicians respect the point of view of military personnel but in the end, the decision is made by politicians," he said.

He called the decision on a complete U.S. withdrawal by the end of next year "final." But Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, in an interview with Reuters last week, appeared to leave the door open to a renegotiation of the security pact when he said he hoped the next premier would not have to propose an extension.

(Additional reporting by Waleed Ibrahim and Muhanad Mohammed; editing by Andrew Roche)