Q+A: Policy impact if Republicans do well in November

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Widespread voter anger fueled by the near double-digit U.S. jobless rate could turn the Democratic-led Congress upside down in the November 2 election, putting Republicans back on top.

In grim news for Democrats, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found on Tuesday that nearly three-quarters of Americans are very concerned about unemployment and more people now disapprove of President Barack Obama than approve of him.

Many analysts expect Republicans to take control of the House of Representatives, but not the Senate. Some project Republicans could take both chambers.

Such a shake-up would slam the brakes on President Barack Obama's legislative agenda and leave him scrambling for support as he nears his 2012 re-election campaign.

Here are some questions and answers about how a stronger Republican presence in Congress will affect policy.

HOW WOULD REPUBLICAN CONTROL AFFECT THE AGENDA?

The party that controls the House or the Senate holds a crucial power in Congress -- it decides what bills to bring up for a vote and when. It also controls all committees, and that gives the party the power to hold oversight -- or investigative -- hearings on administration activities and issue subpoenas to get witnesses to testify.

Without solid control over both chambers, expect plenty of gridlock.

If Republicans control the House, they would be able to pass legislation without any Democratic support. But a Democratic Senate could then block the House-passed bills.

Even if Republicans muster majority support for legislation in the Senate, Democrats could still filibuster, a procedural hurdle that requires 60 votes to clear.

Senate Republicans stopped much of the Democratic agenda the past two years with just the threat of that procedural hurdle, and Democrats may be able to block much of the Republicans' in the next two years the same way.

"It could be two of the emptiest years in American history, legislatively," said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political science professor.

HOW WOULD THE NEW CONGRESS TACKLE THE FEDERAL DEFICIT?

A presidential commission is set to make recommendations by the end of 2010 on tackling the deficit, which is projected to hit $1.34 trillion this year. With voters increasingly alarmed about the U.S. debt load and the pace of federal spending, the deficit debate is certain to get renewed attention next year.

Among possible solutions: cutting retirement benefits, reforming federally funded healthcare programs, and raising taxes.

But any of these remedies will face an uphill climb in the House and the Senate no matter who is in charge.

WHAT HAPPENS TO TAXES IF REPUBLICANS GAIN SEATS?

Republicans are certain to push for more tax cuts, which they see as a key to economic growth. If Congress, as anticipated, fails to extend tax cuts for the rich that are set to expire at the end of this year, expect Republicans to push to renew them next year.

In a speech in Cleveland on Tuesday, House Republican leader John Boehner quoted former Democratic President John F. Kennedy as saying, "an economy constrained by high tax rates will never produce enough revenue to balance the budget, just as it will never create enough jobs."

Obama and most of his fellow Democrats complain that tax relief for the rich would increase the deficit and undermine the economy.

WOULD REPUBLICANS REPEAL HEALTHCARE AND WALL STREET REFORM?

They will try, but likely fall short.

Any repeal would face an anticipated presidential veto. Republicans would need to muster support from two-thirds of the members of both the House and Senate to override the veto.

Republicans are expected to make big gains, but nowhere near the 67 Senate seats or 290 House seats that would give them a two-thirds majority.

WOULD REPUBLICAN GAINS KILL CLIMATE-CHANGE LEGISLATION?

An uphill effort would become even more difficult, but not impossible. Some factors might even help chances next year.

Among them, Some Republican senators who were constrained from cooperating on climate-change legislation because of re-election concerns could have more latitude to cooperate after November. Republican Senator John McCain comes to mind. In the past, he has been a driving force for climate legislation, but sat out the debate this year as he worked to fend off a challenge from a conservative Republican.

Also, the Environmental Protection Agency's rules governing greenhouse gases take effect in 2011. That could jolt the next Congress into action in an attempt to mold the policy and take some discretion away from regulators.

An improved economy, if it happens, could make some fence-sitters more comfortable voting for a bill that would raise consumers' energy costs.

WHAT'S THE OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY LEGISLATION?

Congress might manage to pass a bill this year to reform offshore oil drilling practices in the wake of the BP Plc oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. If it doesn't, the effort likely would be revived next year, but again face hurdles.

A Congress with more Republicans also could see a renewed push to open oil drilling in protected areas, like the Alaskan wilderness.

Republicans will continue to push for more government support for the nuclear power industry. The Obama administration already has taken some steps in that direction, but it has made more progress conditional on doing a broader climate change bill. Democratic cooperation would be needed for either effort to succeed.

WHAT HAPPENS TO OBAMA'S AFGHANISTAN STRATEGY?

Obama's troop surge in Afghanistan this year drew support from most Republicans on Capitol Hill and opposition from many of the president's fellow Democrats.

When Obama moves to begin to withdraw troops from Afghanistan next year, as scheduled, he can expect another partisan split -- with Republicans opposing him and Democrats backing him.

WHO WOULD BE SPEAKER IN A REPUBLICAN HOUSE?

John Boehner, who has opposed the president's domestic agenda -- from healthcare to financial regulation -- is in line for that job. It would give him the power to set the chamber's legislative agenda. The House speaker is second in the line of succession to U.S. presidency, behind the vice president.

IS THE NOVEMBER ELECTION A REFERENDUM ON OBAMA?

Absolutely. Since Obama took office last year, Democrats have said this election will provide an opportunity for voters to say whether they like what the president has done.

Obama's approval rating has been sinking for months, battered by the weak economy, a massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and even a dispute over the location of a mosque. It hit more than 60 percent when his presidency began and now stands at 45 percent, according to a Reuters/IPSOS poll.

But a Republican takeover in Congress does not mean Obama's fate is sealed as a one-term president.

Democratic President Bill Clinton faced predictions of gloom and doom in 1994 -- two years into his administration -- when Republicans won control of the House and Senate for the first time in 40 years.

Clinton managed to move toward the political center, win passage of sweeping legislation to revamp the U.S. welfare system, and win re-election in 1996.

(Additional reporting by Richard Cowan; Editing by Stacey Joyce)