POLL-Republican Buck leads in Colo. Senate race

Wed Aug 25, 2010 12:58pm EDT

* Tea Party favorite Buck leads incumbent Democrat Bennet

* Republicans need to pick up 10 seats to reclaim Senate

* In Colo. governor's race, Democrat Hickenlooper ahead

* Third-party candidate may hurt Republican chances

(Adds detail, background)

By Andy Sullivan

WASHINGTON, Aug 25 (Reuters) - Colorado Republican Ken Buck, who harnessed the insurgent Tea Party movement to win his party's Senate nomination, leads incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet by an eight-point margin, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday.

But anti-establishment fervor may hurt Republicans in the mountain state's race for governor as a third-party candidate is splitting the Republican vote, the poll found.

The mixed results ahead of the November election reflect the double-edged sword that the Tea Party movement represents for Republicans, who hope to harness conservative anger to win control of Congress from President Barack Obama's Democrats.

In the Senate race, Buck leads Bennet by a margin of 48 percent to 40 percent.

The Colorado Senate battle is one of about a dozen races that will determine which party controls that chamber. Obama has held rallies and fundraisers to help Bennet, whose primary victory earlier this month was seen as a win for the president.

Republicans must pick up 10 seats to reclaim a Senate majority and have a bigger say on Obama's legislative agenda. Republicans also aim to regain control of the House of Representatives.

Buck has benefited from the backing of Tea Party groups, which favor lower taxes and limited government and have harshly criticized incumbents from both parties.

He is one of four Republicans to clinch a Senate nomination with Tea Party help, along with Sharron Angle in Nevada, Rand Paul in Kentucky and Marco Rubio in Florida.

But the uncompromising mood of many conservative voters could end up hurting Republicans in the governor's race, the poll found.

Former Republican Tom Tancredo appears to be playing a spoiler's role as he is attracting voters who otherwise would support the Republican candidate, Dan Maes.

Some 41 percent of likely Colorado voters said they would vote for Democrat John Hickenlooper, the current mayor of Denver, the survey found.

Some 33 percent said they would support Maes and 16 percent said they planned to support Tancredo, who left the Republicans to run as a candidate for the little-known American Constitution party.

WOULD BE TIED WITHOUT TANCREDO

Without Tancredo in the race, Maes and Hickenlooper would be tied at 45 percent each, according to the poll.

Among the wider pool of registered voters, Hickenlooper's lead expanded to 42 percent to 27 percent over Maes with Tancredo in the race, and 48 percent to 38 percent if he were to drop out.

Tancredo, a former Republican congressman, is a strident critic of illegal immigration who has aligned himself with the Tea Party movement. He mounted a third-party bid after calling on Maes and another Republican candidate to drop out before the Aug. 10 primary.

"At the moment he's basically a spoiler," said Ipsos Director Julia Clark.

Without a presidential candidate at the top of the ticket, many of the races may turn on which party can better motivate its most loyal voters.

Republicans appear to have a substantial advantage in Colorado, as 76 percent of Republican voters said they were "completely certain" they will vote, compared with 59 percent of Democratic voters and 64 percent of those who called themselves independents.

Jobs and the economy are the top concern of 57 percent of Colorado voters, the poll found, echoing other surveys that found the economy to be the main issue for voters nationwide.

The poll found that Colorado voters are in a less pessimistic mood than the country as a whole. Some 50 percent of Colorado voters thought their state was on the wrong track, while 42 percent said things were headed in the right direction. Nationally, 62 percent say things are on the wrong track, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday.

The Colorado poll found that most voters favor a compromise on the hot-button issue of immigration. Some 64 percent said people living in the United States illegally should be given the opportunity to become citizens if they pay a fine and have a clean criminal record.

Only 40 percent said that all illegal immigrants should be detained and sent back to their home country.

The poll surveyed 601 registered voters and 453 likely voters between Friday and Sunday. It has a margin of error of 4 percentage points for registered voters and 4.6 percentage points for likely voters.

For more election polls and news, please click on

here (Editing by David Alexander and Eric Beech)



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