SCENARIOS-Elections, courts and California gay marriage

SAN FRANCISCO Aug 26 (Reuters) - The future of gay marriage in California is a confusing mix of politics and legal arguments in a closely fought election year in the country's most populous state.

A federal judge early this month overturned the state's Proposition 8 ban on gay marriage, an appeals court is deciding whether to allow an appeal, and candidates for governor and attorney general in the November election are testing the interest in making the issue a campaign centerpiece.

Following are scenarios of what may unfold next.

COURT STOPS CASE IN ITS TRACKS

The future of the court case rests with U.S. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals judges who must decide whether an independent group that backs the ban has the right to appeal it. Oral arguments are set for December. The marriage case is against the state, but Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democratic Attorney General Jerry Brown, who is his party's candidate for governor, both have decided not to appeal. The lower court judge has said it is not clear if the private group can appeal on behalf of the the state's interests.

If the appeals court agrees the private group cannot appeal, that could be the end of the case -- the procedural decision would stop further consideration of the constitutionality of the gay marriage ban.

If the appeals court stops the case, the question of the private group's right to appeal, known as standing, would probably go to the U.S. Supreme Court, but the top court would focus on that issue alone, not the core questions around gay marriage.

The pro-gay marriage group that launched the fight against Prop 8 has said it wants to take the issue to the Supreme Court to set national policy on the issue. It could move to another state and start the whole process over.

NEW GOVERNOR, NO CHANGE

Republican candidate for governor Meg Whitman and Republican attorney general candidate Steve Cooley believe Prop 8 should be defended because it represents the will of the people -- voters passed the ban in 2008. But they will not have a chance themselves to appeal the case even if they win election in November.

The deadline for appeal in a federal case is 30 days from the day the lower court judgment was entered. The judgment was entered in this case on Aug. 12, making an appeal deadline of early September.

By the time of the November election and when officials take office in January, the clock will have stopped ticking.

The appeal deadline is set by federal court rules that appeals judges cannot change, lawyers say.

COURT GIVES GREEN LIGHT TO APPEAL

The court could allow an appeal by Protectmarriage.com, the private group of Prop 8 proponents, reasoning that when state officials decline to defend voters, concerned citizens can step in.

If that happens, judges would then likely decide whether the gay marriage ban is unconstitutional, and whatever they rule is likely to be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, which could take the case or not.

CALIFORNIA ELECTION -- A SPOILER?

Democrat Kamala Harris, the candidate for attorney general, sees gay marriage as a big election issue, if only because voters realize there may be new fights on the hot-button issue that could involve the governor and attorney general.

Gay marriage has popped up a number of times in the campaign so far, but the economy and state budget have been the top concerns so far.

If Californians elect a Republican governor or attorney general, which is possible given poll numbers, and the appeals court allows Protectmarriage.com to appeal the case, the new officials at least could try to file late friend-of-the-court briefs to try to influence judges.

They also might look for novel legal theories to change the case substantially.

Brown and Harris have said they will not appeal the lower court ruling.