Scenarios: What next after Mideast peace talks in Washington

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Israeli, Palestinian and U.S. leaders meet in Washington this week to launch the first set of direct Middle East peace talks in nearly two years.

A lot is at stake for each of the players, especially President Barack Obama, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

Analysts were skeptical, however, that the talks would yield significant breakthroughs in the decades-old conflict.

"The most unlikely scenario is that the talks succeed," said Michele Dunne, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Below are a list of potential outcomes from the relaunched process.

PROGRESS

Though major successes on hot button issues are unlikely, analysts said some progress could be made.

For starters, the leaders could agree to talk again. That would be considered progress.

Laying out a structure and schedule for how to continue talks would also be considered a step forward.

Any measures agreed to loosen Israel's security grip in the West Bank could help lay the groundwork for further success down the road.

Moves to improve Palestinians' quality of life could "keep them in the game," said Steven Simon, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He noted a drawdown or redeployment of Israeli troops away from Palestinian cities in the West Bank as examples of such potential gestures by the Israelis.

Dunne said the talks could also lead to agreement on borders for a Palestinian state, an issue that would be comparably easier to tackle after progress from previous rounds of negotiations.

BREAKDOWN

The Washington talks are being held ahead of a looming deadline: the September 26 expiration of an Israeli settlement construction freeze.

If Netanyahu refuses to extend that freeze or the conditions of an extension are unacceptable to Abbas, the Palestinian leader could walk out and the talks could end.

Other forces could also cause a breakdown. Violence could mount in the region. Islamist Palestinian group Hamas could launch more attacks to disrupt the process. The group killed four Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank on Tuesday.

Obama said such acts should not be allowed to derail the talks, but an escalation could force the Palestinian and Israeli leaders to change their respective stances.

"There's almost certain to be more violence because that's the pattern," Simon said.

The talks could also falter over the sheer weight of the issues upon which the two sides simply do not agree.

TIME CRUNCH

The United States would like to see an agreement within a year, though analysts said that time frame was more symbolic than firm.

"Everyone would be very happy with real progress within a year, much less with any kind of final settlement," said Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic & International Studies.

Realistic or not, the talks -- if they do not produce results within a year -- would run into what will likely be the early start of the next U.S. presidential election season.

That is Obama's time crunch. The U.S. president will want to show voters and important Jewish constituents some progress by then or be in a position to present a backup plan to move the process forward.

(Editing by David Alexander and Eric Beech)