Speculators trim bets against U.S. dollar - CFTC

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Fri Sep 3, 2010 3:55pm EDT

 NEW YORK, Sept 3 (Reuters) - Currency speculators trimmed
bets against the U.S. dollar in the latest week, data from the
Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.
 The value of the dollar's net short position shrank to
$7.1 billion in the week ended Aug. 31, down from a net short
position of $11.12 billion in the previous week, according to
CFTC and Reuters data.
 Speculators had been long the dollar for most of the first
half of 2010 but began betting against it regularly in July as
U.S. economic data suggested economic recovery was slowing.
 Speculators cut their long positions on the Japanese yen
but increased them on the Swiss franc in the latest week.
 The Swiss franc CHF= is viewed as a safe haven amid fears
the global economy is slowing.
 While the yen JPY= is also viewed as a safe haven, the
currency's rapid advance in recent weeks prompted Japanese
authorities to announce easing measures on Monday. A strong yen
makes Japan's exports more expensive and reduces their
competitiveness.
 That made some speculators more cautious on the yen though
traders and analysts alike said that, short of direct
intervention in the foreign exchange markets, the yen is bound
to test its all-time high against the dollar of 79.75 yen set
in April 1995. On Friday the dollar traded at 84.45 yen.
 This week's CFTC data showed net long yen positions fell to
49,904 from 51,069 contracts last week and total long yen
positions fell slightly to 61,219 contracts from 63,086
contracts, in the prior week.
 Scotia Capital says record net yen long positions posted at
65,920 contracts on March 25, 2008, with record yen longs at
94,654 on March 4, 2008.
 The larger the number of long yen contracts, the more
speculators will have to scramble to reverse positions to
prevent losses in the event of a decline in yen and a rally in
the dollar.
 A long position is a bet that a currency will rise in
value, while investors who go short expect it to fall.
 The Reuters calculation for the aggregate U.S. dollar
position is derived from the net positions of International
Monetary Market speculators in the yen, euro, British pound,
Swiss franc, Canadian and Australian dollars.
 JAPANESE YEN (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)
          8/31/10 week         8/24/10 week
Long          61,219               63,086
Short         11,315               12,017
Net           49,904               51,069
 EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)
          8/31/10 week         8/24/10 week
Long          51,099               54,591
Short         76,668               76,194
Net          -25,569              -21,603
 POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,500 pounds sterling)
          8/31/10 week         8/24/10 week
Long          23,052               28,511
Short         38,318               32,876
Net          -15,266               -4,365
 SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)
          8/31/10 week         8/24/10 week
Long          21,185               20,735
Short          6,904                6,867
Net           14,281               13,868
 CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)
          8/31/10 week         8/24/10 week
Long          26,957               24,889
Short         31,721                8,742
Net           -4,764               16,147
 AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)
          8/31/10 week         8/24/10 week
Long          54,261               58,462
Short         10,453               11,445
Net           43,808               47,017
 MEXICAN PESO (Contracts of 500,000 pesos)
          8/31/10 week         8/24/10 week
Long          38,731               68,371
Short         17,727                9,001
Net           21,004               59,370
 NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR(Contracts of 100,000 New Zealand
dollars)             8/31/10 week         8/24/10 week
Long          12,193               14,931
Short          5,236                4,248
Net            6,957               10,683
 (Reporting by Nick Olivari; Editing by James Dalgleish)


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