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Fed report shows widespread signs growth easing

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A 'sale' sign is seen outside a house in Alexandria, Virginia, July 22, 2010. REUTERS/Molly Riley

A 'sale' sign is seen outside a house in Alexandria, Virginia, July 22, 2010.

Credit: Reuters/Molly Riley

WASHINGTON | Wed Sep 8, 2010 4:31pm EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The economy has shown "widespread signs" of slowing over recent weeks, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday in a report suggesting that while the recovery has been faltering, the economy may skirt a second recession.

The Fed said in its Beige Book compilation of anecdotal reports that modest growth was the most common characterization of economic activity in Fed districts, primarily those in the western and middle portions of the country such as San Francisco, Dallas, and Kansas City.

However, other areas, including New York, Philadelphia, and Chicago, reported economic growth was mixed or had slowed.

"The economy continues to plod forward, neither gaining momentum nor lurching back into recession," said Sal Guatieri, an economist for BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.

The Fed said consumer spending appeared to increase even as shoppers were limiting themselves to essential items, a further sign the economy may escape a relapse.

However, a separate Fed report showed consumer credit had contracted for the sixth month in a row as households repaired their balance sheets after a debt binge in the early 2000s.

Upward price pressures remained quite limited for most categories of goods and services, and wage pressures were also subdued, the Fed said.

"The reports suggested ample supply of qualified applicants for open positions," the Beige Book said.

Economists are divided over the degree to which the nation's 9.6 percent jobless rate reflects a labor market battered by a deep recession and sluggish recovery, or a mismatch between workers skills and locations and the jobs available.

U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT PARTLY STRUCTURAL

In a speech in Montana on Wednesday, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Narayana Kocherlakota said that more than a quarter of U.S. unemployment could be due to a mismatch between workers' skills and jobs. The Fed, by easing financial conditions further, would not be likely to have much impact in reducing unemployment if this is the case, he said.

Markets paid the report scant notice as it was seen as confirming that the recovery had flagged over the summer.

The hard hit housing sector showed further declines after an initial drop following the expiration of a popular tax credit, the Fed said.

The Beige Book was prepared ahead of the Fed's next policy-setting meeting September 21, where policy makers will debate whether to provide further support for the stumbling recovery.

The Fed cut interest rates to near zero and then bought longer-term securities worth more than $1.7 trillion to pull the economy out of one of the deepest recessions in decades.

It had appeared set to start withdrawing stimulus, but as the recovery's green shoots withered over the summer, it moved to resume buying securities to hold its portfolio at a steady level. Policy makers are debating whether the Fed needs to actively increase the size of its holdings to supply additional stimulus.

(With additional reporting by Lucia Mutikani and Amy Linn in Missoula, Montana; Editing by Neil Stempleman)

We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/
Comments (4)
I agree with Fed on growth issue.. If growth depends on Housing it can not happen. By just buying houses that were not worth they were priced. There won’t be inflation and COllapse has been Obviated.

But how will you make it fly.. ? There you need inflation. and that too in a Big way.

No one knows what Fed will do finally but in either ways Individual Investor should remain Diversified. I have shown how on my Blog.

http://amareshgangal.blogspot.com/p/proposed-portfolio-for-common-man.html

Thanks
Amaresh.

Sep 08, 2010 6:14pm EDT  --  Report as abuse
garrisongold wrote:
Uh, oh! When these folks that saw green shoots wherever they looked are now seeing the ghosts of green shoots and withered vines, you know things are going to get scarry.

Sep 08, 2010 7:21pm EDT  --  Report as abuse
Stock-MD.com wrote:
Trying to spin the unemployment problem as a structural issue related to a mismatch of skills in the labor force is absurd. Of course it is part of the problem because it is always part of the problem, and even more so when unemployment is low. That is not a useful piece of information.

The unemployment problem is a catch-22 caused by the uncertainty over the fiscal policies hatched by the federal government over the last year and a half. It really is that simple. Companies are not hiring because they do not have increasing demand and consumers are not demanding because they are concerned about their own employment.

It will improve when the economy has had enough time to digest and adjust to the healthcare law, FinReg, and whatever they end up doing on taxes. Obama made a choice to go for healthcare at all cost because it was the only chance he would get. If he would have spent that year doing tax reform instead, we would still be in a strong recovery instead of a weak one.

The stimulus plan and huge spending increase in his first budget have also contributed but healthcare is by far the biggest problem and the people knew it. That is why the majority of Americans opposed the bill. A different stimulus plan would have been more effective and the budget increase just wrong but those are marginal issues.

The ultimate blame goes to the American people for electing Obama and giving him super majorities in both houses of Congress. We got exactly what we elected and they did exactly what you would expect of them in the situation they were put in. They had a once in a lifetime chance to do healthcare so they did it regardless of the damage to the rest of the economy.

To boil it down, the Democrats care more about everyone having healthcare and the Republicans care more about everyone having a job. Where do you stand?

Sep 09, 2010 10:20am EDT  --  Report as abuse
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