Top Lula aide quits over Brazil election scandal

BRASILIA (Reuters) - President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's chief of staff quit on Thursday over an ethics scandal, in a bid to stave off possible damage to Lula's front-running candidate in Brazil's presidential election next month.

Erenice Guerra, whose role as cabinet chief is an influential post in the Lula government, had come under growing pressure to step down over allegations that she was involved in a kickback scheme for public works contracts.

Trailing badly in opinion polls, main opposition candidate Jose Serra has sought to link the scandal to ruling party contender Dilma Rousseff, who preceded Guerra as Lula's chief of staff before launching her campaign.

Rousseff holds a wide lead in polls ahead of the October 3 election and remains on course to win a majority of votes in the first round of voting, despite the allegations that she condoned unethical conduct by her leftist Workers' Party.

Guerra has been accused of influence peddling and helping her son's consultancy skim money from public contracts, including while she was Rousseff's advisor before becoming chief of staff.

But Rousseff has not been directly linked to any wrongdoing, which analysts say makes it unlikely the scandals will cut her lead.

"The chances that it forces a second round are still rather small. The opposition would have to be very skilled to exploit this incident," said Amaury de Souza, a Rio de Janeiro-based political analyst.

"The corruption scandals so far didn't change voter preference except among those with higher education or income. That is insufficient to change the odds."

Guerra's resignation could even boost Rousseff's support if it is seen by voters as a decisive move to purge an official involved in corruption, said Jose Luciano Dias, a political analyst with CAC consultancy in Brasilia.

"Dilma will even win some votes. The government will say they investigated and took action," he said.

INFLUENCE PEDDLING

Riding the enormous popularity of Lula, Rousseff has been predicted by all major polls in recent weeks to win the majority of votes she needs to win the election outright and avoid a runoff on October 31.

A survey by polling firm Datafolha on Thursday showed her with 51 percent of voters' support against 27 percent for Serra of the opposition PSDB party. The same poll last week showed Rousseff with 50 percent against Serra's 27 percent.

With null and blank poll responses removed -- as happens with ballots in the election -- Rousseff has 57 percent, the Datafolha poll showed.

Rousseff has held and even increased her lead despite accusations, fueled by intense media coverage, that the ruling party illegally accessed tax records of Serra's daughter and opposition members to gather potentially damaging information against them.

The separate scandal involving Guerra was first reported by news magazine Veja last weekend and grew in recent days as fresh allegations emerged in the media.

One entrepreneur told Folha de Sao Paulo newspaper that he was asked by Guerra's son's firm, following a meeting with the minister last November, to pay a 5 percent commission in order to obtain a government credit line. When he rejected the request, he was asked to contribute 5 million reais ($2.9 million) to Rousseff's campaign, the newspaper reported, citing a taped interview with the businessman.

Guerra will be replaced on an interim basis by her deputy Carlos Eduardo Esteves Lima. Another official in the Lula government, Miriam Belchior, will likely be named to the post next week, a government spokesman said.

(Writing by Stuart Grudgings; Editing by Todd Benson and Vicki Allen)