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Health reform to worsen doctor shortage: group

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A stethoscope rests on a container of hand sanitizer inside of the doctor's office of One Medical Group in New York March 17, 2010. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson

A stethoscope rests on a container of hand sanitizer inside of the doctor's office of One Medical Group in New York March 17, 2010.

Credit: Reuters/Lucas Jackson

WASHINGTON | Thu Sep 30, 2010 9:44pm EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. healthcare reform law will worsen a shortage of physicians as millions of newly insured patients seek care, the Association of American Medical Colleges said on Thursday.

The group's Center for Workforce Studies released new estimates that showed shortages would be 50 percent worse in 2015 than forecast.

"While previous projections showed a baseline shortage of 39,600 doctors in 2015, current estimates bring that number closer to 63,000, with a worsening of shortages through 2025," the group said in a statement.

"The United States already was struggling with a critical physician shortage and the problem will only be exacerbated as 32 million Americans acquire health care coverage, and an additional 36 million people enter Medicare."

Medicare is the federal health insurance plan for people over the age of 65, and census projections show that group growing as the giant baby boomer generation born from 1946 to 1964 hits retirement age.

The U.S. healthcare reform plan signed into law by President Barack Obama in March is designed to provide insurance to 32 million Americans who now lack it.

The AAMC projected a shortage of 33,100 physicians in specialties such as cardiology, oncology and emergency medicine in 2015.

It calls for Congress to increase funding to train new doctors. "The number of medical school students continues to increase, adding 7,000 graduates every year over the next decade," the AAMC said.

It said at least 15 percent more were needed.

Other groups, such as the nonprofit Rand Corporation and the Institute of Medicine, have also projected various physician shortages.

(Editing by Peter Cooney)

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Comments (4)
Allow intelligent scientists, data programmers, real-time developers, top dbas, droid app developers to collaborate along with artificially intelligent science software to replace most if not all doctors. Not all doctors need to be brain surgeons. All doctors as well as scientists knowledge can be replaced (like most intelligence professions) with cyber-intelligent diagnosing software connected to high-tech diagnostic medical equipment…and thus not needing as many docs as is discussed above.

Sep 30, 2010 12:15am EDT  --  Report as abuse
livewombat wrote:
If we have the same number of doctors and the same number of patients, but health system reforms let previously underserved patients get health care, that’s not creating a shortage of doctors.

The health care reform is just changing which patients have a shortage of doctors.

The aging population, the insanely complex insurance system, poor compensation for primary care, and a number of other factors may be creating a shortage of doctors, but the health care reform is promising a redistribution, not “creating” a shortage.

Oct 01, 2010 8:43am EDT  --  Report as abuse
cashman57 wrote:
livewombat– you are not looking at the real problem. The problem is chronic shortages of medical staff due to low compensation. Look at what happened when the UK did this same reform to their dental plan. Brits are pulling their own teeth because dentists would not work for the paltry sum the UK gov’t offered.
This shortage will occur and it will be serious and it will happen because of the stupidity of 0bamacare, a bill which nobody read nor understood before voting on it and the guy whose dog ate his birth certificate didn’t read it because it would not apply to him.
Do you still believe his campaign promise to read every bill line by line?

Oct 01, 2010 8:26pm EDT  --  Report as abuse
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