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US Crude Outlook - Diffs supported by refinery strike
* Dollar strength factor remains in focus
* European refinery strike supporting U.S. margins
NEW YORK, Oct 18 (Reuters) - U.S. cash crude differentials will find support from Europe's ongoing oil refinery strikes as global gasoline and diesel buyers look to the United States to replace supplies lost from the diminished output and rapidly dwindling stocks, traders and brokers said on Monday.
But the dollar remained a key factor in the price of oil and the impact of a rising dollar on prices cannot be discounted, traders said.
"I would expect some consolidation and downward pressure on oil/futures prices early this week as the dollar pauses and claws back some of its luster -- not much though -- because the trade is not certain of the amount of QE2." said Carl Holland of Connecticut-based Energy Trading Solutions.
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled on Friday that the U.S. central bank would loosen monetary policy further in a debt purchase program described as a second round of quantitative easing, or QE2, but gave no details.
On futures markets, November WTI CLX0 rose $1.42 to $82.67 a barrel at midday, while the dollar was flat against the euro at about $1.3897. FOREX.
Cash prices were seen flat to unchanged with WTS seen trading several times at 2.50 cents under the November crude oil screen, in range with Friday's level.
In Europe, Forties crude oil differentials hit their lowest levels in almost 20 weeks as increasing North Sea supplies competed for fewer buyers as the French strike cut demand.
Brent crude futures held a premium to WTI futures, but the spread was seen moving up, holding at 50 cents at midday from the 61 cents on Friday CL-LCO1=R.
Weaker front-month WTI against either second-month WTI or the North Sea benchmark tends to strengthen grades, which deliver against second-month WTI and compete with Brent.
U.S. refined product margins were mixed last week, with the heavily import-dependent Northeast region reaping the reward from the European strike, according to a weekly report from Credit Suisse Monday. [ID:nN18271835]
Gasoline and distillate demand has been slow to rise amid the recovering economy but has been steady enough to keep refinery margins above last year's levels and keep refiners buying.
(Reporting by Janet McGurty)
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