Afghan timeline seen fraying under military pressure

KABUL (Reuters) - A top NATO official's warning that the alliance may miss a 2014 deadline for handing over control of Afghan security exposed a gulf between political timelines and complex military reality just before a major summit on the war.

Afghanistan will top the agenda at a NATO summit in Lisbon this week, where world leaders including U.S. President Barack Obama will gather to plan their troops' exit from an increasingly unpopular war.

Afghan leader Hamid Karzai has said he wants the Afghan army and police, which are being rapidly beefed up by foreign trainers and cash, to have control of the country by 2014 and that goal has been endorsed by NATO and its allies.

But Mark Sedwill, the top NATO civilian representative in Afghanistan, said Wednesday that the transition process may run into 2015 and beyond, and that after foreign troops step down from combat roles the country could see "eye-watering levels of violence."

"There has been a clear decision that there needs to be a transition, a handover," said Martine van Bijlert, co-director of the Afghanistan Analysts Network.

"Now they are faced with the reality of it, and although you can spin quite a lot there are limits, and that is perhaps where this comes from -- trying to soften the timeline while holding onto the message they are transitioning and planning to leave."

Violence in Afghanistan is at its worst since the Taliban were overthrown in late 2001, with record casualties on all sides of the conflict, and the insurgency spreading to previously peaceful northern and western parts of the country.

The Taliban, who some analysts say may be heartened by a deadline for the departure of foreign troops, have said they aim to continue to step up their military campaigns.

"Basically we have no expectation that they will leave without any pressure," Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told Reuters by phone from an undisclosed location.

"They should learn from our history, but it seems they do not. Whatever strategy or timetable they adopt, it will not have an impact on our pressure."

SILENCE FROM KARZAI

The escalating violence has helped raise Western interest in seeking a negotiated end to the conflict, long an approach favored by Karzai, although some insurgent groups including the Taliban say they will not talk until foreign troops have left.

"It is not enough to just keep the troops on the ground and do what we are doing as there is an escalation of violence on both sides," said Thomas Ruttig, also co-director of the Afghanistan Analysts Network, who sees the 2014 target as over-ambitious and designed for domestic audiences.

"We need to keep the troops but move away from the primarily military effort and push for a political solution instead."

Karzai, already embroiled in a dispute with the alliance's commander about a recent criticism of the visibility and intensity of foreign forces' operations, declined direct comment on Sedwill's remarks.

His spokesman said only that the president expected the summit to focus on transition, and would underline the need for Afghan forces to play a more high-profile role in operations.

"We are expecting special attention on the strengthening of our forces ... The president will be emphasizing the need for a further role for Afghan security forces in operations," said spokesman Siyamak Herawi.

The U.S. embassy, and military leaders with the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan, also declined to say if they were anticipating a slower-paced handover, or comment on Sedwill's remarks.

(Additional reporting by Sayed Salahuddin and Ian Simpson; Editing by Susan Fenton)