Q+A: What next in Ivory Coast poll stalemate?

ABIDJAN (Reuters) - Ivory Coast's election rivals are locked in a row over the still-unpublished results from the November 28 presidential run-off meant to reunite the west African cocoa-exporter after years of crisis.

Incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo's party says the results are fraudulent and has asked the top legal body to cancel them. Rival Alassane Ouattara's supporters, who believe Ouattara took the majority of the votes, insist the results should be published before any are challenged.

Here are some questions and answers on the stalemate:

WHY AREN'T THE RESULTS COMING OUT?

The election commission has tallied results from across the country but there are still disagreements between factions within the commission, which is made up of representatives from both camps, over whether they can be announced or not.

Gbagbo's camp says the vote was rigged by pro-Ouattara rebels in the north. The sight of pro-Gbagbo commissioners snatching result sheets out from under the election commission spokesman who was reading them to the media this week underscored the scale of the rows.

Despite the fact official results have not yet been released, the candidates, as well as the head of the U.N. mission and the mediator's office, all have their own copies of the tally. While both sides have complained of intimidation during the poll, only Gbagbo has contested the results by asking the Constitutional Council to cancel them.

A number of websites published what they said were results showing that Ouattara had won the election. "It is the worst kept secret in town," said one diplomat.

But short of an announcement by the election commission, the result hinges on decisions made by the council.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

Pascal Affi N'Guessan, Gbagbo's campaign manager, has said the election commission is too political to announce the results so they must be verified by the council.

Ouattara says this is an illegal move, while analysts say the court is unlikely to be impartial given it is headed by Paul Yao N'Dre, a close associate of Gbagbo's.

A spokesman for the council said it had not yet been officially contacted by either candidate, but confirmed that the council had the power to annul any batches of results they deem to be fraudulent.

It is unclear how long the council would have to examine the results before coming to a decision and announcing a winner. The constitution provides as long as a month under some circumstances, meaning a prolonged delay is possible.

WHAT ABOUT OUTSIDE PRESSURE

Foreign powers including the United States and France, as well as the United Nations, have all called for the results to be formally announced without delay. They have been ignored.

According to the 2007 deal which lead to a breakthrough in the stalemate to reunify the country after the 2002-3 civil war, the U.N. must sign off on any final election result.

It isn't clear, however, how far the U.N. mission, led by softly-spoken South Korean diplomat Y.J. Choi, will go in defending a process he has so far called democratic.

Gbagbo has long won popularity by resisting foreign intervention in his country.

Donors have little leverage over Ivory Coast in terms of aid in the world's top cocoa-exporter.

Pressure is likely to turn instead to regional and other African leaders to try to find a solution to the crisis before it escalates, potentially derailing the peace process.

IS THERE A THREAT OF VIOLENCE

A history of elections violence, especially in the main city Abidjan, means that fears of clashes are high. Cocoa exporters have shut down due to these risks.

Both sides have called for their supporters to remain calm but tensions will have been stoked by the shooting dead by the security forces of at least four people at one of Ouattara's local party headquarters overnight.

Many Ivorians are weary of years of crisis. But analysts warn that there are hardliners in both camps who may feel that they have too much to lose if they lose the election so could be more inclined to fight to the end.

Large numbers of frustrated unemployed youth may mean that the risks of at least short-lived street clashes are high.

(Editing by Richard Valdmanis)