Scenarios - Possible outcomes in Ivory Coast's poll dispute

ABIDJAN (Reuters) - An election meant to resolve Ivory Coast's decade-long political crisis seems only to have deepened it, after incumbent Laurent Gbagbo defied international pressure to concede defeat to his rival Alassane Ouattara.

Former South African leader Thabo Mbeki was meeting both rivals on Sunday in an attempt to mediate an end to a dispute.

Below are several possible short- and medium-term scenarios.

A COMPROMISE

This seems extremely unlikely given the way both sides have dug their heels in, but it may be the only peaceful way out.

-- Brokering it is made especially difficult by the fact that so many nations have followed the United Nations in backing the electoral commission's declaration of Ouattara as winner, so they are unlikely to be trusted by Gbagbo as mediators.

-- South Africa for that reason has neither congratulated Ouattara nor criticized Gbagbo. South African officials say Mbeki's perceived neutrality is vital for his mediation to work.

-- It is hard to see what sort of deal would be acceptable to Ouattara, aside from him taking the presidency. Even accepting the prime minister's post in the type of power-sharing deal that Kenya reached after its disputed 2007 election would seem insufficient. Ouattara says he won, has been congratulated by several world leaders including U.S. President Barack Obama, and has sworn himself in. He is unlikely to take anything less.

-- Gbagbo has made a career out of defying international pressure, and protracted delays to the election mean he has already ruled since 2005 without a clear mandate. Even at the risk of taking the country back to war, Gbagbo has shown every sign of wanting to retain power at all costs.

MASSIVE POPULAR PROTESTS

These are a risk for Gbagbo. He himself used this method to oust General Robert Guei during a violently disputed election in 2000, bringing thousands of his supporters onto the streets to force the coup leader to accept defeat.

-- Yet Gbagbo remains popular in Abidjan -- just over half its registered voters backed him -- and any such protest would most likely lead to bloody clashes between his supporters and Ouattara's. That could turn into ethnic violence, especially in the west which is known as a tinderbox of tribal tensions.

-- The military has sworn allegiance to Gbagbo and threatens to be merciless with anyone causing trouble. Protests so far been muted, possibly because protestors fear bloody reprisals. Already on Wednesday police shot dead four people outside one of Ouattara's political headquarters in an Abidjan suburb.

THE CRISIS DRAGS ON

Gbagbo was able to take power when the Constitutional Council, headed by his ally, agreed to cancel hundreds of thousands of votes in Ouattara strongholds in the north, alleging intimidation by rebels.

The rebels reject this and are backed by a groundswell of popular support in the north. Given that and their support for Ouattara, reunification seems an ever more distant prospect.

The rebels may simply keep their territory, maintain their lucrative smuggling and racketeering fiefdoms while Gbagbo continues to control the south, where much of the country's cocoa and all of its oil is produced.

That could mean yet more slow-burn crisis: the political deadlock after the 2002-3 war dragged on partly, analysts say, because players on both sides were benefiting financially.

A RETURN TO ALL OUT WAR

The conflict over the poll has reignited simmering north-south tensions and the rebel leader Cherif Ousmane has warned that they will not rest long without doing something about Gbagbo, though they have not been specific.

Despite an arms embargo to Ivory Coast, analysts say both sides have been re-arming for years. The poll row has effectively scuppered the peace process, so Gbagbo may feel he has to send his military to the dividing line to deal with the threat of still armed rebels now explicitly backing his rival.

That would be the worst-case scenario for neighbors in no fit state themselves to take in civilians fleeing a war.