SCENARIOS-New UK bank CEOs face tough post-crisis slog

* New CEOs at four of UK's big high street banks

* Dealing with tougher regulations tops to-do list

By Steve Slater and Sudip Kar-Gupta

LONDON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - The new chief executives at four of Britain's top banks face a daunting list of challenges topped by tougher regulations spawned by the global financial crisis.

Four of the top five retail lenders have staked their futures on very different individuals, including a sports-mad American investment banker and the daughter of Spain's top financier.

Their predecessors may have steered their banks through the 2008 crisis, but they have left the new CEOs a tough slog ahead. Pay, capital buffers, returns, the sale of government bank stakes and a probe into competition are all high on the agenda.

"The outgoing guys have come through one almighty financial crisis and you can argue they've been relative winners, certainly (Barclays') Varley and (HSBC's) Geoghegan," said Mike Trippitt, analyst at Oriel Securities.

"There are different challenges, especially a much tougher regulatory environment," Trippitt added.

John Smith, fund manager at Brown Shipley, added: "The banking sector is still recovering from the problems of 2007 and 2008. It's going to be a long, drawn-out situation."

Coping with regulatory change is the clear priority. Regulators have spent much of the last two years hammering out new standards. It should become clear this year how banks will be affected by holding more capital and improving liquidity.

Britain's Independent Commission on Banking (ICB) is also assessing if big banks are too powerful. It's due to report around September, but will offer initial thoughts in the spring.

Here are some of the challenges facing the CEOs:

GULLIVER'S TRAVAILS AT HSBC

--Stuart Gulliver became HSBC (HSBA.L)(0005.HK) CEO on Jan. 1 as part of a new top team with Chairman Douglas Flint after a boardroom shakeup.

HSBC may have come through the banking crisis better than many rivals, but Gulliver faces doubts that his bank can achieve its targeted 15-19 percent return on equity (RoE) in the new regulatory landscape. He may lower those targets.

The well-respected 30-year veteran of HSBC who was paid 10 million pounds by HSBC for 2009, could also come under fire for his pay and that of his staff.

From his Hong Kong base, he is likely to oversee HSBC becoming the first foreign firm to list in Shanghai and intensify his bank's focus on Asia.

HSBC, together with Standard Chartered (STAN.L) and Barclays, has warned it could move headquarters away from London if new rules disadvantage UK banks. The threat has eased, but could flare up again as business shifts east.

BARCLAYS' CUTTING EDGE

--Bob Diamond took over as Barclays (BARC.L) CEO on Jan. 1 and got an intense grilling from UK lawmakers this week on pay, lending, tax avoidance and competition. [ID:nLDE70A0X8]

Diamond looks set to axe parts of Barclays where returns are too low when he unveils 2010 results on Feb. 15 and may not spare capital-intensive parts of Barclays Capital, the investment bank he built up over the last 14 years.

"We think that only the man who built BarCap into such a dominant part of the group has the mandate within Barclays to rebalance the group away from the investment bank," analysts at UBS said in a note this week.

By shedding low-return assets he could give over 10 billion pounds ($15.5 billion) back to investors in the next three years, lift returns to 16 percent and boost shares, UBS said.

A row with Lehman Brothers creditors in a New York court is another threat. Barclays is confident it will win, after being accused of getting an $11 billion windfall.

Diamond, one of Europe's highest-earning bankers, and his staff have been slammed by politicians over their pay. The risk is it becomes harder for him to compete with U.S. and Asian rivals for talented staff.

LLOYDS' DARK HORSE

--Antonio Horta-Osorio was poached from Santander's British business and arrives at Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.L) next week, taking over as CEO on March 1.

Horta-Osorio, whose passion for scuba diving includes cage diving off South Africa, probably faces the biggest challenge but also has the best turnaround potential.

Lloyds is in the ICB's crosshairs. The Commission is not expected to split investment and retail banking, but may cap retail market shares and tell Lloyds to sell more branches than the 600 the EU has already demanded. [ID:nLDE68M1RC]

Even after those disposals, Lloyds will have almost a quarter of current accounts and mortgages. Barclays Capital analysts estimated that disposals to remedy EU and ICB concerns could wipe 23 percent off earnings.

Horta-Osorio faces other problems, including big wholesale refinancing. The bank also last month warned of bigger Irish losses, which will slash its expected return to profit for 2010.

"Lloyds has got some of the biggest challenges," Jane Coffey, head of equities at Royal London Asset Management, said, citing potential problems from UK commercial property as well as Ireland, and higher funding costs.

Horta-Osoria wants to show the merits of Lloyds' troubled HBOS deal and position the bank so the government can start selling its 41 percent stake. That could happen soon after the ICB reports later in the year.

SANTANDER'S FAMILY AFFAIR

--Ana-Patricia Botin was parachuted in as Santander's (SAN.MC) UK CEO last month

She is the eldest of the Chairman Emilio Botin's six children and credited with running Spain's Banesto (BTO.MC) well since 2002.

Ana-Patricia Botin will spearhead the public listing of about one-fifth of the UK arm and needs to show investors it deserves a premium rating to value the business at near 20 billion euros.

Its capital hungry parent is keen to repeat the successful initial public offering of its Brazilian arm. UK profit rose 13 percent in the first nine months of 2010 as it won market share in key areas and bulked up to 1,600 branches.

But the business lacks the growth appeal of Brazil, and investors may drive a hard bargain as they know the sale of Britain's massive holdings in Lloyds and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L) is also likely to start late in 2011.

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(Editing by Erica Billingham)