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Fed says economy, jobs outlook improving

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U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies in front of the U.S. Senate Budget Committee on ''The U.S. Economic Outlook: Challenges for Monetary and Fiscal Policy'' on Capitol Hill in Washington, January 7, 2011. REUTERS/Jim Bourg

U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies in front of the U.S. Senate Budget Committee on ''The U.S. Economic Outlook: Challenges for Monetary and Fiscal Policy'' on Capitol Hill in Washington, January 7, 2011.

Credit: Reuters/Jim Bourg

WASHINGTON | Wed Jan 12, 2011 3:02pm EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy strengthened as the year drew to a close, according to a report from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday that cited rising employment levels across the country.

The Fed's Beige Book report, based on anecdotal reports collected from the business contacts of the central bank's regional branches, painted an increasingly bright, if cautious, picture.

While real estate markets, at the heart of the deepest recession in generations, remained predictably weak, manufacturing contacts sounded more upbeat.

The Fed reported better conditions across all 12 of its districts, though banking and financial services showed results that varied by region.

"Economic activity continued to expand moderately from November through December," the central bank said in a statement.

The findings were consistent with a recent pick-up in U.S. economic data that has prompted some economists to beef up their forecasts for growth in the first half of 2011.

The U.S. economy grew 2.6 percent in the third quarter, a level considered too meek to put a significant dent in the nation's 9.4 percent jobless rate.

Against that backdrop, the Fed announced in November it would buy an additional $600 billion in bonds over an eight month period in order to support the recovery by keeping long-term borrowing costs low.

Market interest rates have risen sharply since then despite the purchases, though policymakers have argued they might have risen even further without Fed action.

The improvement in conditions in the Beige Book report strengthens the case, made both by some top Fed officials and outside economists, that the latest round of bond-buying might not be necessary.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, however, has argued that the economy is running so far beneath its full potential that it continues to need help from the monetary authorities.

The central bank has cited both weak employment conditions and very low inflation readings to justify its actions.

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Comments (7)
RMax304823 wrote:
The “Beige Book”, I’m surprised to find, is based on “anecdotal reports” from branch offices. I wonder just what that means in this context. “Anecdotal reports” can take any form. Here’s an example of an anecdotal report from a branch manager, which I just made up. “I met a guy on the street yesterday who told me he’s happy with the way things are going.” Here’s another: “Things are so bad, I heard f one guy who’s considering suicide.” They can range from reliable to ridiculous. An anthropological study of a native tribe is an anecdotal report but it’s done by a disinterested, trained, and responsible professional. Well-organized focus groups come up with reliable anecdotal reports too. But branch managers may be responding to command pressure (knowingly or otherwise) and telling the boss what he wants to hear. Or the boss himself may disregard anecdotes that don’t substantiate the claims he wants to make. (Cheney and Iraq’s WMDs are an example.) Without knowing more about the methods, it’s mpossible to say how accurate the Fed’s conclusions are.

Jan 12, 2011 3:34pm EST  --  Report as abuse
Pullum wrote:
One can only hope that – based on this improvement – ther Fed will stop inflating the economy.

Jan 12, 2011 4:56pm EST  --  Report as abuse
BlueEye wrote:
I saw the 60 minutes interview last night with good old Ben “Shalom Berni”. Said he was just printing money.. so print away… sooner or later inflation will catch on and the dollar will be worth less.

Jan 12, 2011 5:15pm EST  --  Report as abuse
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