Canada PM sees 50-50 chance of election this year

* Canadian PM says in no one's interest to have election

* Polls show Conservatives would win another minority

OTTAWA Jan 19 (Reuters) - Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said there was a 50-50 chance that opposition parties would bring down his minority Conservative government and provoke an election this year.

The Conservatives won power in January 2006 and again in October 2008 but never managed to capture a majority of seats in the House of Commons.

This means they have to rely on the support of opposition legislators to pass key measures such as budgets.

Political analysts are split over whether the three opposition parties will unite to defeat the government over its next budget, likely in early March. That would trigger an immediate election.

"My gut tells me I don't know. It's 50-50," Harper told the Canadian Broadcasting Corp when asked whether there would be an election this year.

"We take the threats from the opposition very seriously. I don't think it's in the country's interest. I don't think it makes any sense to have one right now," he said in an interview broadcast on Tuesday night.

Polls show the most likely result of an election now would be a third consecutive minority Conservative government.

The main opposition Liberal Party has made clear it will vote against the budget. It is promising to scrap C$6 billion ($6.1 billion) in annual corporate tax cuts and annul a C$9 billion deal to buy new fighter jets, saying Ottawa should focus more on cutting a big budget deficit.

The separatist opposition Bloc Quebecois party is unenthusiastic about Harper, which leaves the fate of the government in the hands of the left-leaning New Democrats.

The leader of the New Democrats -- who says he is interested in working with other parties -- is pressing the Conservatives to provide more help for seniors and to make investments in manufacturing.

Harper has given little indication as to whether he will agree to the New Democrats' demands and include their measures in the budget. ($1=$0.99 Canadian; Editing by Bill Trott) (Reporting by David Ljunggren)