Analysis: Bahrain opener puts F1 in crisis mode

LONDON (Reuters) - Bahrain's season-opening Formula One Grand Prix looked increasingly doomed on Friday because of the bloody protests in the country.

The sport's commercial supremo Bernie Ecclestone told Reuters that a decision would be taken on Tuesday or Wednesday next week with the March 13 race likely to be axed or postponed if bloodshed and unrest continued in the Gulf kingdom.

"If it's not quietened down by Wednesday, I think we will have to cancel probably," said the 80-year-old Ecclestone who has tackled many crises in his decades in the sport but never before one of such a nature.

Four protesters were killed and 231 wounded when riot police drove activists from a makeshift camp in Bahrain's capital Manama on Thursday. Dozens were detained.

The F1 teams' body FOTA was meeting to discuss the crisis while other talks were taking place during testing at Spain's Barcelona circuit.

Few, if any, of the individuals sounded out by Reuters expected the race to happen and they were waiting for a decision by Ecclestone and the governing International Automobile Federation (FIA).

"We are meeting today internally and also in Spain with our customer teams to discuss the likely outcome, but always with an eye on the fact that whatever Formula One decides to do, we will support," said Mark Gallagher of engine supplier Cosworth.

Next week's deadline is dictated by the fact that Bahrain is also due to host the last pre-season test on March 3, meaning that teams would need to fly out their cars and personnel at the end of next week.

THREE SCENARIOS

There are effectively three main logistical scenarios that teams must consider.

The first is that nothing changes and Ecclestone decides testing and the race can proceed as planned. The second is for both to be canceled and the third for testing to be rescheduled elsewhere while the race is given the green light.

However, with the deaths and injuries in a crackdown ordered by Bahrain's Sunni ruling family to quell opposition protests, the sport also has to consider the potential damage to its image as well as the possibility of the event becoming a political target.

"We would be very disappointed if we were unable to start our season in Bahrain," Williams team chairman Adam Parr told Reuters.

"We want to make a positive contribution to the countries that we visit and our intention is always to be there as a positive presence. If that were not to be the case, we would not want to make a negative impact.

"Clearly if Formula One were to become a focal point of unrest, that would be a concern," he added. "It's not just about the safety of those involved but being sensitive to what is going on in the country."

Another senior figure in the F1 paddock, who did not want to be identified, put it more bluntly: "A lot of people would slag us off if we went for supporting a regime that kills its own people."

Such sensitivities have not always been a priority in the past, with Formula One racing in South Africa at the height of the apartheid era as well as in Argentina during the 1976-83 'Dirty War', but times have changed.

Some teams are struggling to keep sponsors, let alone attract new ones, and Formula One is seeking to re-position itself as a greener sport that has a conscience and is responsive to its audience.

The Bahrain situation has also again exposed the downside to the sport's expansion to developing countries, far from its European heartland, where rulers are eager to hand over large amounts of cash to secure a grand prix.

The Icelandic volcanic ash cloud caused significant travel disruption for teams after last year's Chinese Grand Prix in Shanghai while tensions between the two Koreas hung over the south's debut on the calendar in October.

A cancellation would be a blow for both the sport and Bahrain, which became the first Middle Eastern country to host a round of the championship in 2004 in a bid to transform itself into a tourist destination as well as a business hub.

Bahrain's Mumtalakat holding company will own close to 50 percent of former champions McLaren by the end of this year as the team buys back shares from Mercedes.

The country's Sakhir circuit cost an estimated $150 million to build and the race is credited with generating hundreds of millions of dollars annually in revenues as well as making a significant contribution to national GDP.

If Bahrain does not happen, then Australia's race in Melbourne on March 27 is set to becoming the season-opener as it was in the past while teams could switch the final test to Barcelona.

That would be welcomed by the teams, for whom Melbourne has long been a favorite destination, if not by broadcasters and Ecclestone whose live television audience figures would likely take a hit in Europe given the time difference.

(Editing by Clare Fallon; To query or comment on this story email sportsfeedback@thomsonreuters.com)