Gold retreats from record high after Japan quake
NEW YORK |
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Gold was little changed on Thursday afternoon, retreating from a record high after another strong earthquake hit Japan.
In early trading, gold rose to a record for a third straight session on inflation worries and expectations that the European Central Bank's first rate hike since 2008 would weaken the dollar.
Crude oil and global equities also retreated after a strong earthquake shook Japan, pressuring gold. The dollar strengthened against the euro instead of weakening as many had expected, which put further pressure on gold.
Even though the European Central Bank raised rates, investors were not convinced that more rate hikes were on the way.
"You're back to a dollar story for the first time in a long time." said Frank McGhee, head precious metals trader of Integrated Brokerage Services. "Gold prices and the dollar both benefit from that rate hike because it increases the differentials between euro zone and the U.S. interest rates."
Rising interest rates generally are negative for gold, but investors bought bullion immediately after the ECB rate hike because they expected the dollar to weaken in the future.
Spot gold hit a record $1,464.80 an ounce and was later down 0.1 percent to $1,456.14 at 1:14 p.m. EDT. U.S. gold futures for June delivery eased 0.1 percent to $1,357.50 an ounce.
The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points to 1.25 percent to counter inflation pressure. Gold has risen more than 2 percent this week, benefiting from rallies in crude oil and corn and as Portugal requested a European Union rescue package.
"Of course the ECB will be vigilant in monitoring inflation developments very closely. But it is more inflation expectations that made the ECB concerned, and less the actual increase (in inflation)," said Peter Fertig, a consultant at Quantitative Commodity Research.
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the rate hike was not necessarily the start of a series, disappointing some who had expected a more hawkish tone.
The traditional inverse correlation between gold and the dollar appeared to be strengthening this week to a negative 0.8, as gold hit successive records, but the link could be erratic in the near term. A correlation of minus 1 indicates a perfect inverse link, while a correlation of plus 1 indicates that both are moving in perfect tandem.
SILVER EDGES UP, BUT OFF 31-YEAR HIGH
Among other precious metals, silver gained 0.2 percent at $39.50 an ounce, just off the previous session's 31-year high at $39.75.
Silver has not shaken its image of an unpredictable metal with high volatility and chronic oversupply, but investors seem set on driving prices beyond the recent 31-year high.
On fundamentals, industrial demand for silver is expected to rise less than 10 percent this year, after prices more than doubled to 31-year highs since late 2010, the head of metals research and consultant GFMS said on Thursday.
Platinum was down 0.4 percent to $1,781 an ounce, while palladium shed 0.2 percent to $776.50.
(Additional reporting by Jan Harvey in London)
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Frank, I bet you’re a glass is half empty kind of guy, aren’t you? Silver is the second best performing commodity over the last year. Since August of 2010, the trend has been on a continuous climb with only occassional retraces. What investment could possibly do better? How does this sustaining trend constitute “unpredictable volatility”?
Re “alleged” chronic oversupply: Where did you get this piece of information? The US and Canadian mints have both had frequent difficulties securing enough silver blanks for their various coin programs. When Sprott launched their new physical silver fund recently it took them months to find the silver they needed to buy. Silver supply over the last 10 years has only grown at an average of 2% per year, while demand has vastly outstripped that tortoise-like growth ate. Finally, China exported over 100 million ounces of silver in 2005, but turned net importer in 2010 with 130 million ounces purchased. That’s about 14% of the world’s yearly supply of silver alone!
PS. Frank – silver is in backwardation. It’s been all over the news for sometime now. Please, do more research before you make incorrect sweeping statements.
Everyone else, see Why You Must Buy Silver Now http://survivalus.blogspot.com/2011/02/why-you-must-buy-silver-now.html



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