Analysts View: Nigeria's Jonathan set for election victory

ABUJA (Reuters) - President Goodluck Jonathan took an unassailable lead in presidential elections on Sunday, according to a Reuters tally of partial results.

Following are analysts' views on the outcome:

RAZIA KHAN, HEAD OF AFRICA RESEARCH, STANDARD CHARTERED

"A concrete result from the first round of presidential elections in Nigeria will likely be greeted with quiet relief by markets, as it avoids the uncertainty and potential for unrest, especially the risks to oil output, that a second round presidential election might have involved.

"To the extent that the 2011 elections were seen as much freer than the elections that preceded this vote, in 2007 and 2003, this will also be seen as a positive.

"However there are also key implications from the outcome that should not be brushed aside. One, the split in the vote on the presidential election suggests a country that is still very divided. Regions that might be seen as more marginalised have led the call for change.

"The extent to which policy is able to address this effectively in the months to come will be a key determinant of the outlook for Nigeria, whether the country really comes into its own in delivering on its economic potential.

"Failure to address these concerns adequately would see Nigeria remaining mired in the past, with a political risk profile that provides a less than ideal base for its take-off as Africa's regional economic giant.

"While a near term relief rally is easily plausible in Nigerian financial markets, the political impetus behind real reform, and the extent to which theses challenges are met head-on, will be the determinant of longer term outcomes.

"Following events in North Africa, markets will be paying more attention to political risk and a system that has relied heavily on patronage in the past may not be seen as most suited to the challenges of reform in the future.

"Despite the relief now, markets too will be seeking evidence of change, evidence that reform is indeed underway."

SAMIR GADIO, EMERGING MARKETS STRATEGIST, STANDARD BANK

"Preliminary results are broadly in line with consensus expectations and suggest that the candidates of the two main opposition parties (ACN and CPC) have somewhat struggled to extend gains beyond their core constituencies.

"The smooth presidential election will boost Nigeria's institutional and democratic credentials, but the key test will be the extent to which Jonathan's administration is able to implement critical reforms in areas such as power, the Petroleum Industry Bill and NNPC restructuring, infrastructure development and oil revenue management.

"Such policy steps are urgently needed to unlock the country's significant investment and economic potential."

KAYODE AKINDELE, GREENGATE STRATEGIC PARTNERS

"President Jonathan has won a 4-year mandate in this often divisive election but in the end he can comfortably claim to have received more support from every zone of Nigeria than any of the other candidates.

"Politically he will need to appease some in what is often referred to as the "core north" to bring the country together but economically he now has a mandate to push through far-ranging reforms like the Petroleum Industry Bill and power privatisation to drive the economy forward.

"He has a majority in both houses of the national assembly to work with. Now with the gubernatorial elections to go, the focus for many economic analysts and investors will be on the make up of his new cabinet and who gets the key portfolios."

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(Reporting by Chijioke Ohuocha and Nick Tattersall)