Analysis: Russia's Medvedev makes play as Putin mulls return

Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev speaks during a joint news conference at the BRICS Leaders Meeting in Sanya, Hainan province April 14, 2011.

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev look increasingly like campaign rivals as Russia's March 2012 presidential vote draws near: two politicians promoting themselves and making veiled criticisms of each other.

President Medvedev is pitching himself as the right man for Russia's future and trying to set himself apart from Prime Minister Putin, who is widely seen as the paramount leader and has said he may return to the presidency.

But unless the long-time allies do the unexpected by running against each other, political analysts and diplomats say the decision on who will be the next president lies with Putin, president from 2000-2008.

"We have only one voter, and his name is Vladimir Putin," commentator Yulia Latynina told Ekho Moskvy radio.

Putin, 58, is expected to decide whether to run for president himself, endorse his protege Medvedev for a new six-year term or, less likely, tap a third candidate.

Long in Putin's shadow, Medvedev, 45, is making an increasingly bold play to keep his job as the clock ticks toward the end of a term that has produced more rhetoric than results.

In choreographed public events and made-for-TV meetings, he has cast himself as the candidate of change, obliquely questioning Putin's legacy of tight state control.

Last month, he visited the tomb of reformist Czar Alexander II and told government ministers to leave the boards of state companies. Putin's powerful ally, Igor Sechin, duly quit his post as chairman Russia's biggest oil company, though analysts called the move cosmetic.

Wearing a bomber jacket emblazoned with the title of armed forces commander-in-chief, Medvedev indirectly but clearly criticized Putin for likening a Western call to action in Libya to "medieval calls for crusades.

PRESIDENT OR PLACEHOLDER

In an interview with Chinese television aired last week, Medvedev said it was "high time for changes" and that he would decide soon whether to run for a second term.

In a shift from some previous statements, he did not say the decision would be made together with Putin.

Political observers differ over what outward signs of a rift between Putin and Medvedev mean.

Some see serious policy differences, others a smokescreen to create a veneer of competition and please as many groups as possible in both Russia and the West, where Putin is viewed warily because of friction during his presidency.

Most agree that Medvedev would not dare defy Putin and run on his own.

Brought to the pinnacle of power in 2008 after years as a loyal subordinate to the longtime Soviet KGB officer, who is nearly a generation his senior, Medvedev lacks a broad power base and lags behind Putin in popularity ratings.

"His only hope is to have Putin's concurrence," a Western diplomat said.

Putin has maintained a poker face in public, as he did for months before anointing Medvedev as his favored successor less than three months before the 2008 election, when he was constitutionally barred from seeking a third straight term.

Medvedev's stature has grown significantly since then and particularly in the past year or so, another diplomat said. But his recent assertiveness could be born of necessity rather than confidence.

"Every day without a decision brings him closer to being a lame duck," the diplomat said.

A day after Medvedev promised a decision on a re-election bid soon, Putin said it was too early to name a candidate and called the "fuss" over the vote counterproductive.

PUTIN'S CHOICE

Many analysts say Putin, who presided over Russia's oil-fueled economic resurgence as president, has not made up his mind. Few doubt he would win if he were to seek a new term.

But a return to the presidency would pose the challenge of equaling or improving on the economic achievements of his previous stint.

After annual growth averaging some 7 percent in the boom years of Putin's presidency, the economy contracted by 7.9 percent in crisis-hit 2009, its worst performance in 15 years.

Endorsing Medvedev, however, would make the prime minister's allies nervous and increase the chances that his protege could eclipse him if he has six more years in the top seat.

Putin could spring a surprise by picking another candidate, but that would risk sending the message that his ruling "tandem" with Medvedev has been less than a success.

His next chance to provide hints on his plans is an annual report to parliament on Wednesday.

Putin's return to the Kremlin after a four-year hiatus would be legal.

But as Medvedev has hinted, it could be seen as a recipe for stagnation rather than progress toward stronger political institutions, a smaller role for the state in the economy and less reliance on energy exports to drive the economy.

"If Putin returns, that means the complete personalization of power in Russia," said Samuel Charap, Russia and Eurasia director at the Center for American Progress in Washington.

"It's a signal to the elite that everything's OK, no need to change, we had everything right the first time around."

(Editing by Paul Taylor)