WRAPUP 5-US inflation hits 2-1/2 year high, seen peaking

Fri May 13, 2011 4:32pm EDT

Related Topics

 * Consumer prices rise 0.4 percent on gasoline and food
 * Year-on-year gain biggest since October 2008
 * Core CPI up just 0.2 pct, real earnings fall 0.3 pct
 * Strengthening labor market buoys consumer morale in May
 (Adds comments color, updates markets)
 By Lucia Mutikani
 WASHINGTON, May 13 (Reuters) - Gasoline and food prices
hoisted U.S. inflation to a 2-1/2-year high in April, but there
was little sign of a broader pick-up in consumer prices that
would trouble the Federal Reserve.
 The pace of food and fuel price rises slowed considerably
from March, suggesting inflation pressures may be peaking.
 That, along with a strengthening labor market, lifted the
spirits of consumers who have been battered by rising prices.
 But the rapid rise in inflation has left wages trailing and
many Americans are worried about the squeeze on their personal
finances, a survey found.
 Consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in April, slowing from 0.5
percent in March, the Labor Department said on Friday.
 The rise, which was in line with economists' expectations,
took the year-on-year inflation reading to 3.2 percent, the
highest since October 2008.
 Stripping out volatile food and energy costs, core CPI rose
a mild 0.2 percent from March. The 12-month increase at 1.3
percent was at its highest level since February 2010. The Fed,
however, would like to see that closer to 2 percent over time.
 "The report raises no red flags for the Fed of an unruly
inflationary dynamic taking hold," said Julia Coronado, North
America chief economist at BNP Paribas in New York.
 "Surging headline inflation has taken some steam out of
economic momentum of late which would leave the Fed more
inclined to be cautious in removing accommodation."
 Year-on-year core CPI has risen 0.7 percentage point from a
record low of 0.6 percent in October, an increase Fed officials
will keep an eye on as they decide when to tighten policy.
 Separately, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's
index of consumer sentiment rose to 72.4 from 69.8 in April.
The surveys also showed consumers were less worried about
inflation over the next year.
 <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
  INSTANT VIEW [ID:nN13143525]
  Graphic - US inflation and wage growth:
  r.reuters.com/xek59r
  Graphic - US inflation: Core CPI rose at faster pace
  r.reuters.com/duk59r
  Graphic - U.S. consumer sentiment, inflation:
  r.reuters.com/pam59r
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
 CONSUMERS SQUEEZED
 The stiff rise in food and energy costs in recent months
has squeezed consumers, who are seeing only tepid wage gains.
 Average hourly earnings, when adjusted for inflation, fell
0.3 percent in April -- declining for a third straight month.
In the 12 months to April, they dropped 1.2 percent.
 The sentiment survey showed a quarter of respondents
reported declining incomes, and almost a third said rising
prices had lowered their living standards.
 Many Americans are cutting spending to cope with rising
prices.
 John Bedell, 38, an architect living in Boston said he
often brings his lunch to work and borrows movies and books
from a public library rather than buy them. He also recently
cut his cable package.
 Kathy Wismer, a 45-year-old equine enthusiast from Baldwin
City, Kansas, has parked her horse trailer and pickup truck in
the barn. She said she and her husband are planning to save
more this summer ahead of what may be harder times ahead.
 "I think the economy is turning around, but I don't think
there is any quick fix," she said.
 Data on Thursday showed high food and energy prices
diverted spending from other areas in April as retail sales
posted their smallest rise in nine months. For details see
[ID:N12296928]
 Last month, rising costs for housing, cars and trucks
boosted core CPI. Prices for new vehicles rose 0.7 percent,
reflecting lean inventories as a shortage of parts following
the earthquake and tsunami in Japan disrupts production.
 U.S. Treasury debt prices rose on the inflation report,
while stocks fell. Strong growth data in Germany and France
boosted the euro against the dollar.
 The U.S. central bank has pumped massive amounts of money
into the economy, in part to prevent a damaging downward spiral
in prices. Its focus is now shifting to how best to eventually
withdraw some of the monetary stimulus.
 With commodity prices dropping sharply in recent days,
economists said headline inflation was close to peaking, which
would lessen the risk of broader price pressures building.
 "Given what has gone on with commodity prices lately it's
likely to represent a peaking in near-term inflation pressures.
You are going to see a rollover in the coming months," said
Brian Levitt, an economist at OppenheimerFunds in New York.
 "Inflation pressures as a whole throughout the the economy
remain modest."
 Gasoline prices accounted for almost half of the rise in
overall consumer inflation last month, advancing 3.3 percent.
 The pace of increase, however, slowed from March's 5.6
percent rise and further declines are likely. U.S. gasoline
futures RBc1 posted their sharpest daily drop since September
2008 on Wednesday. They edged up on Friday.
  (Additional reporting by Richard Leong in New York, Lauren
Keiper in Boston and Carey Gillam in Kansas City; Editing by
Chizu Nomiyama)



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Comments (2)
CadronBoy wrote:
Peaking? No way!

I’m not even an economist but I predict we’ve only seen the beginning of a renewed cycle of inflation. In fact, to pay down our national debt I predict we’ll see inflation of 6-10% within 12-18 months, especially given that the alternatives are to raise taxes or cut spending — neither of which seems to be possible with the current bipartisian bickering in Congress and the eagerly sought out entitlements that everyone demands. The underlying, unspoken goal of the Fed is to print more money, keep interest rates low and pay down our debt in inflated dollars. Seems quite obvious to me.

May 13, 2011 11:59am EDT  --  Report as abuse
GRRR wrote:
0.2% Core CPI / 1.3% annualized. That’s lower than the Fed’s target, which also happens to be dropping, for some curious reason.

Considering that commodity prices may be bursting (look at your graphs people, because oil’s rise and subsequent fall looks an awful lot like 2007), I’d suggest stop paying attention the the headline inflation rate.

Or if you really believe inflation is coming, BUY OIL!

May 13, 2011 12:40pm EDT  --  Report as abuse
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